"AAP"timystic Dilli

AAP clean sweeps yet again. Incredible performance by any standards !! Anti incumbency was against the AAP this time around and the BJP under shah went ballistic - almost 200 MPs - many leading names in the cabinet and 11 CMs were on the road campaigning for the party. Winning this election sweepingly against the BJP and its almost infinite resources at its command is indeed a stupendous feat.

This (Click here)  is what I had written on 10th Feb 2010 when AAP had beaten an invincible looking Modiji by a huge 67 seats to 3 with congress failing to even score. Let me start from the same post today when AAP has kind of repeated the performance of last elections (62-8) this time. 

First AAP -

This is what I wrote last time about AAP

with great power comes great responsibility. Here is one suggestion - do not follow the BJP carpet bombing strategy about grabbing power. Create a 10 yr. vision of growing nationally in phases. This means two things1. Get down to brass tacks create an action plan and focus on delivering a major part of your promises in Delhi.2. Create an organisation nation wide focussing on people with similar values.

Honestly, after the landslide victory last elections - in the initial years AAP looked distracted. They tried to go national overnight and actually following the carpet bombing strategy that I had opined against - and lost badly. Then they created a hulla as if they are winning Punjab elections (that too did not happen). There were internal fights - many people parted ways - Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Biswas to name a few. They even fought the bureaucrats and kept targeting Modiji as someone who was a terrible obstructionist.

However, the good thing was they learnt fast  (as they do often) and cooled down, started focussing and worked on at a few deliverables, This seems to have worked handsomely for them as they created an image of doers who brought about a sea change in delivery of basic governance in the city/state. But they seem to have made almost no inroads that of creating a national alternative to opposition. In fact, they seem to have become a one man Party - kejriwal. So here is my suggestion for them now

1. Keep the focus on delivering on your promises as was there in the last three odd years. 
2. Go to old friends and hug them back into the party/ organisation. They were real strength for AAP as well as for citizens of India. 
3. Start working on point 2 of last election's post - pan national organisation. Then leave Delhi to Sisodiaji and move out to build India wide presence. If AAP fails to do that this time around they may not get another chance. 

 For BJP 

All five points I mentioned last year remain as true & relevant for then this time as well. So read them again - here they are 

Second for BJP(Modiji) and its (blind) supportersYou are very strong nationally - take this defeat humbly. You stuck out your neck every time - took the risk and won with flying colors till now. Law of averages has finally caught up. That is no big deal. Collaborate with the new Govt. in Delhi and don't block growth - it will be counter productive.Stop trying to form Governments at any cost (like you are trying to do in Bihar now)3. Stop rebranding and spending on promotions and focus on delivering a few specific promises as - in any case you cannot deliver on all of them.4. Control motormouths who are scaring communities. They seem to be deserting you.5. Finally don't dream of 'Congress Mukt Bharat' because die hard congress supporters probably consolidate with a credible opposition if there is one.

May I just stress point 5 of last year again. Here is data to prove the point

	AAP		BJP		INC
	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share
2015	67	54.3%	3	32.3%	0	9.7%
2020	63	53.5%	7	38.75%	0	4.3%

While the decimation of congress has resulted in increased percentage of vote share of the BJP (in this election) by an impressive 6 plus percentage but it would be simplistic to say that congress votes simply shifted to the BJP.  In fact, last election the total annihilation of Congress helped consolidate the anti BJP votes leading to a clean sweep for the AAP.  Obviously the BJP need tripartite/multi-cornered contest to win in states. So stop looking for congress-mukt bharat. 

Add the following this year to the list

1. Please avoid divisive agenda - the silent majority feels unhappy about it. This election tried to make communal polarization the new normal with even cabinet ministers stooping down to gutter level language.
2. Focus on the economy - time is running out for the country.
3. Modiji should come down to Delhi and accept the responsibility of this defeat. That will be a great gesture to tone down the arrogance that has built up in the party over time of invincibility. 

For Congress

All three points I made last year repeated with more stress and more power of conviction. Here is what This is what I had written then 

1. Sonia and Rahul - take responsibility & resign. Pass on the baton to young and deserving leaders.2. Reinvent and learn the art of better communication in the new young and digital world.3. Go on the streets and connect to real people.

Nothing more to add. Change or be perished. Here is data for you to chew - Congress candidates has lost deposits in 63 out of 66 seats they contested in Delhi.

Let me end this too with the same line that I ended last election's post - "Long live the Indian Democracy".

Movie Review - पंगा

I am not really a Kangana fan. In fact, I quite dislike her because of her unnatural and very average acting skills. So, when my wife suggested watching Panga on her Birthday - I was faced with a devil's choice. You know what I mean - either endure Kangana for three hours or watch a kangana like expressionless face for weeks, if not months.

But then, to my surprise, Panga turned out to be a great flick, "potentially". It starts as the nuclear family version of a suraj badjatya flick "ham saath saath hai", then takes a "dangal" turn and finally turns into a "marry kom" with a "Jo jeeta vo sikandar" finish. The movie turned out to be nice one time watch. 

Panga is a story of a typical middle class housewife jaya nigam who is steel inside. Someone who sacrifices her passion for her duties and then adjusts her duties to pursue her passion. Its a story of how a Indian female has to manage a balancing act all the time and it inspires them to pursue what they believe in. It also is a tale to inspire those who missed the first chance. Or is it really !?

The movie attacks many stereotypes at the same time. That, a working lady has to manage both the fronts, that a husband is not made to manage the house, that there is a right age for everything, that women needs to marry sooner or later and bear children, that independent, ill-mannered, arrogant woman are bad, that woman are..... - so on and so forth. In that sense the movie could have been a very powerful one; the key phrase is "could have been". It fails to be a powerful statement. The director looks confused about whether she is making a light entertaining movie, a movie that drives a strong message, or a movie that will be a commercial success. It thus turns out to be none.

There are many flaws - for a start its script required a lot of pruning and baking to make it crisp. At times the sequence stretches, is slow and lasts longer than the message and then at times it is curtly finished in a single dialogue. The dialogues are OK but fail to stay with you or to hit you hard. Most characters are underdeveloped. The loving husband seems to be a loser which hopefully was not the message. Ashwini iyer Tiwari assumes that audience would know and understand kabbadi and its rules - she failed to learn from the excellent presentation of "dangal". Also movie in most sequences fails to generate the adrenaline that a fast game like kabbadi should have pumped up. In most parts the movie was quite predictable - fails to surprise. In that sense Ashwini turned a nice sweet movie closer to her "Nil Battey Sannata" rather then the more interesting "Bareilly Ki Barfi". Shankar Ehsaan Loy too fail to weave the usual magic they do - music was good but fails to inspire.

I think, the weakest aspect of the movie is its casting - Richa Chaddha's immense talent is being wasted as the second lead - here is an unpopular original opinion - Richa would have turned out to be fitter in the role that Kangana played in the movie. Someone like Taapsi would also have done a great job in the role. And I don't say this because of my innate dislike for Kangana (I rather think this was one of her better performances) but because the character she played, had immense potential for some great acting. Jassie gill was sweet and underwhelming - he just did his job. His character wasn't really developed well. The kid yagya bhasin is impressive and confident. Richa Chaddha is the reprieve you get from dull acting in the movie. She tries hard - however she has been typecasted in the "fukrey" mould. Someone needs to offer her more challenging roles. Neena Gupta did not even get the screen time to make a mark. 

The positive was that the movie was quite real. One feels it is happening around us. Maybe that's why it fails to inspire. It does not look like many middle aged will feel like making a second try after watching the movie. However, full points to the director for keeping the story practical. She avoids the temptation to turn a women in thirties to become a superwomen. She focused on the mental, psychological endurance rather than the physical one - which is good. More often than not the protagonist is faced with hard realities of life rather than winning real battles in a fantasy world of bollywood. The movie kind of pulls you back in the climax and you feel like connecting again and then it ends - just like that. :-)

Panga is a sweet, nice, watchable flick for a movie on the go. Nothing spectacular to remember and for viewers like me - it is a wasted opportunity to actually craft a potentially memorable film. It could have been a big box office hit as well but for the lax treatment of a great story.You can wait for it to appear onn your TV screen or maybe watch it because you don't have a better option. 

Temporary setback or start of a decline !?

With Jharkhand slipping out of the BJP grip quite convincingly - BJP/modi haters are quite ecstatic. Despite an invincible looking Lok sabha win five states slipping out of the BJP fold in just one year does make them look vulnerable suddenly (they have a government in Haryana/Karnataka, however the mandate was not really for them).

Some say that the "Modi Tsunami" is finally waning away - a substantial share of seats that Modiji campaigned for in state elections before and after the 2019 Lok sabha polls were lost by the BJP. Various memes are viral on the social media that compares the BJP's rule between Dec 2018 and Dec 2019; the states under BJP rule shrinking from 19 to 13, The area it governs shrinking from 71% to 35% of India, The population it rules from approx 69% to 42.5%. An interesting statistic is that in the Lok Sabha BJP represents 51% of the Assembly Constituencies whereas at the Vidhan Sabha level - after jharkhand elections it represents just 32% of the constituencies. 

So what does this mean !?
The question is should we start writing the fall of the modi empire and that BJP's achche din as getting over. Like always the answer is not so simple or straight forward. Historically, supporters of either side would like to believe that their perception is the correct one. Let's dip a little into data to understand the nuances.

Let's look at election data for BJP in the three assembly elections conducted in 2019 after the Loksabha elections

BJP vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

Year -- >	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana	9%	4	33%	47	36%	40
Maharashtra	14%	46	27.8%	122	25.7%	105
Jharkhand	20.2%	18	31.26	37	33.7	25

After the stupendous climb in the vote share in 2014 over the 2009 levels the BJP has either maintained or even bettered that vote share in the 2019 elections. However a minor decline in the total number of seats won by the BJP has resulted into government slipping from their grip sometimes.

The results of these elections however - has elated the congress much. So much so that some supporters have started mocking at the "congress mukt bharat" slogan. A few have even shown the gall to phrase the term "BJP mukt bharat" based on the number of states, area under BJP and similar data. So let's look at what is the situation of Congress

Congress vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

Year -- >	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana	35%	90	20.5%	15	31%	31
Maharashtra	21%	82	18%	42	15.9%	44
Jharkhand	16.2%	14	10.5%	6	13.9%	16

As the above table clearly shows after a total rout of sorts for the Congress in 2014 there does seem to have been a modicum of recovery for the Congress. However, to feel elated about this recovery can mean that the Congress still does not understand the depth and quality of decay in their reputation among the masses. They are currently at half the vote share to that of the BJP and are hardly a competition to the BJP as of now. While they may be partners in the Government in the states but politically they are fast transforming into a lightweight.

What explains the BJP setback then !?
The Question then is what is the reason for the BJP setback then. Here is another table for the same states for the 2nd/3rd largest performer in each state (combined for states with more than one strong player)

Regional Party(ies) vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana  (INLD+Ind+JJP)	39%	38	37%	24	29.4%	18
Maharashtra (NCP+SS)	32.7%	106	35.25%	164	32.6%	110
Jharkhand (JMM)	15.2%	18	20.4%	19	18.7%	30

What this table tells is common knowledge, but it is cemented by data proof. In most states now there is a strong regional party/combination that challenges the BJP domination. The arrogance of the BJP brought about by the dizzying success achieved first in 2014 and then in the Lok sabha elections of 2019 may have created this speed breaker of sorts. Alienating the AJSU in jharkhand and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra may have costed it dearly. In at least 10 seats for example in Jharkhand the combined vote share of BJP and AJSU was more than the winning candidate. In the recent future the BJP is going to face elections in West Bengal, Bihar and Delhi where there are regional players TMC, RJD and AAP respectively. 

An interesting statistic to point out is that Excluding J&K India has Total 4033 MLAs out of which

BJP - 1315

Congress - 844

Others - 1865

Vacant - 9

This when the BJP is at the peak of its popularity and the Congress at the Nadir. This is why the BJP will need partners in state to maintain its dominance and for that it must contain its arrogance.

While this is the picture of only three states but it is true of many more states including the north east. The elections of hindi speaking belt (MP/Rajasthanan and Chattisgarh) does not show this trend because none of these states have a strong regional party. Congress improved its performance in these states and so have taken over the Government from the BJP - however a I had shown in an analysis in Dec 2018 then - BJP remains very strong in these states too - except chattisgarh where the congress win emphatic and sweeping. In these states historically - a swing of a couple of percentage points in vote share is substantial in terms of seats won. Here is the analysis if you are interested to read it.

For the congress the important point to brood over is that in most of these states at least one strong regional player was once part of the Congress. It has to come up with strategy and a leader that can help them lead the opposition consolidation that seems to be happening in the states on probably survival instinct. The problem with their leadership is that had their not been sharad pawar in maharashtra they would have let the government there also slip away to the bJP because of their dithering and indecision. In Haryana for example they failed to even build a challenge.

Here is what the Loksabha elections of 2019 looked like

Vote share and seats won in Parliamentary Elections 2019

Party	% of votes polled		No of Seats
	Of Total Voters	Of Votes Polled
BJP	25.16%	37.76%	303
INC	13.12%	19.7%	52
Trinamool	2.74%	4.11%	22
BSP	2.44%	3.67%	10
NCP	0.93%	1.4%	5
CPI(M)	1.18%	1.77%	3
CPI	0.39%	0.59%	2

There is little evidence on the ground that this has changed. The congress should not feel happy about being second nationally with about half the vote share than that of the BJP. BJP has no competition at the national level and the only way to defeat them currently is when they themselves commit harakiri. 
The point in short is 

Despite this setbacks in government formation the BJP support is intact and growing. What has happened is that the opposition in states have consolidated to prevent them to form the government. This is not bad for democracy but is not a durable template for the long term.

While the BJP should seize this opportunity by being humble and including more people in its ambit (although it seems to be doing quite the opposite by being all the time combative, arrogant and in denial). They need to earn trust of fence sitters but their recent aggression probably may have the opposite effect. I have said this earlier - wish to repeat it here. "Congress Mukt Bharat" is actually deleterious to their fortunes - because the more congress shrinks the more regional satraps become stronger.

On the other hand the Congress need to realise the rot and slumber that it is in and should find new credible leadership to create alliance and help consolidate the opposition to become its national face. Of course, at this point of time this looks like wishful thinking as the congress dithers, splutters, stumbles and still moves on !!

Regional parties have the onus till then to fight it out on the ground. The problem however is that most regional parties are out of sync with the millennials as they beat on the same traditional - old lines. They need more progressive approach to reach out to the youth of the country.

Hope we see fundamental changes in politics of all these formations in the new year. Wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous new year.