This (Click here) is what I had written on 10th Feb 2010 when AAP had beaten an invincible looking Modiji by a huge 67 seats to 3 with congress failing to even score. Let me start from the same post today when AAP has kind of repeated the performance of last elections (62-8) this time.
First AAP -
This is what I wrote last time about AAP
with great power comes great responsibility. Here is one suggestion - do not follow the BJP carpet bombing strategy about grabbing power. Create a 10 yr. vision of growing nationally in phases. This means two things1. Get down to brass tacks create an action plan and focus on delivering a major part of your promises in Delhi.2. Create an organisation nation wide focussing on people with similar values.
Honestly, after the landslide victory last elections - in the initial years AAP looked distracted. They tried to go national overnight and actually following the carpet bombing strategy that I had opined against - and lost badly. Then they created a hulla as if they are winning Punjab elections (that too did not happen). There were internal fights - many people parted ways - Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Biswas to name a few. They even fought the bureaucrats and kept targeting Modiji as someone who was a terrible obstructionist.
However, the good thing was they learnt fast (as they do often) and cooled down, started focussing and worked on at a few deliverables, This seems to have worked handsomely for them as they created an image of doers who brought about a sea change in delivery of basic governance in the city/state. But they seem to have made almost no inroads that of creating a national alternative to opposition. In fact, they seem to have become a one man Party - kejriwal. So here is my suggestion for them now
- Keep the focus on delivering on your promises as was there in the last three odd years.
- Go to old friends and hug them back into the party/ organisation. They were real strength for AAP as well as for citizens of India.
- Start working on point 2 of last election's post - pan national organisation. Then leave Delhi to Sisodiaji and move out to build India wide presence. If AAP fails to do that this time around they may not get another chance.
For BJP
All five points I mentioned last year remain as true & relevant for then this time as well. So read them again - here they are
Second for BJP(Modiji) and its (blind) supportersYou are very strong nationally - take this defeat humbly. You stuck out your neck every time - took the risk and won with flying colors till now. Law of averages has finally caught up. That is no big deal. Collaborate with the new Govt. in Delhi and don't block growth - it will be counter productive.Stop trying to form Governments at any cost (like you are trying to do in Bihar now)3. Stop rebranding and spending on promotions and focus on delivering a few specific promises as - in any case you cannot deliver on all of them.4. Control motormouths who are scaring communities. They seem to be deserting you.5. Finally don't dream of 'Congress Mukt Bharat' because die hard congress supporters probably consolidate with a credible opposition if there is one.
May I just stress point 5 of last year again. Here is data to prove the point
While the decimation of congress has resulted in increased percentage of vote share of the BJP (in this election) by an impressive 6 plus percentage but it would be simplistic to say that congress votes simply shifted to the BJP. In fact, last election the total annihilation of Congress helped consolidate the anti BJP votes leading to a clean sweep for the AAP. Obviously the BJP need tripartite/multi-cornered contest to win in states. So stop looking for congress-mukt bharat.
AAP
|
BJP
|
INC
|
||||
Seats
|
Vote Share
|
Seats
|
Vote Share
|
Seats
|
Vote Share
|
|
2015
|
67
|
54.3%
|
3
|
32.3%
|
0
|
9.7%
|
2020
|
63
|
53.5%
|
7
|
38.75%
|
0
|
4.3%
|
Add the following this year to the list
- Please avoid divisive agenda - the silent majority feels unhappy about it. This election tried to make communal polarization the new normal with even cabinet ministers stooping down to gutter level language.
- Focus on the economy - time is running out for the country.
- Modiji should come down to Delhi and accept the responsibility of this defeat. That will be a great gesture to tone down the arrogance that has built up in the party over time of invincibility.
For Congress
All three points I made last year repeated with more stress and more power of conviction. Here is what This is what I had written then
1. Sonia and Rahul - take responsibility & resign. Pass on the baton to young and deserving leaders.2. Reinvent and learn the art of better communication in the new young and digital world.3. Go on the streets and connect to real people.
Nothing more to add. Change or be perished. Here is data for you to chew - Congress candidates has lost deposits in 63 out of 66 seats they contested in Delhi.
Let me end this too with the same line that I ended last election's post - "Long live the Indian Democracy".
Good one!
ReplyDeleteThank You :-)
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