Budget 2019 - Huge expectations - negative delivery

As the first full-time lady Finance minister of Independent India, N. Sitharaman has a lot to be proud of. For India as a country too this is sort of a milestone - female power busting another historically male dominated domain. 

Having said that, her record either as the Commerce Minister or as the defence minister has been a disaster. So one was disappointed to see her becoming the Finance Minister at a very important juncture for the Indian Economy. She is one more in the series of appointments under the Modi government who is in her position because of an unflinching loyalty to the king.

Be it what it may, did she do something to change my perception of her in the Full Budget presented on 5th July 2019 (if we still think that Piyush Goyal presented just a vote on account in Feb, that is) Let's do some detailed analysis. 

Background
One sympathises with Nirmalaji because she inherited an economy that is largely in a mess and she cannot now blame the previous Government too (well magic !? the previous government was also her own - times change don't they). 

Arun Jaitley will probably go in the annuls (at least that's my opinion of him as the FM) as a Finance Minister adept at managing media narratives but who did little to reform or restructure the Indian economy in its most crucial decade and as someone who lied his way through his entire tenure - on data (Fiscal Deficit/Disinvestment for eg), on narratives (demo for cashlessness for eg) too. He missed on an opportunity to radically restructure/reform the economy.

So what does Nirmala Sitharaman inherit from him as an economyAn NPA mess in the Banking Sector
A Banking system that is burdened with an NPA (Non-Performing Assets) mess. According to the MOF data the gross NPA more than tripled from below 3 lakh crores to more than 9 lakh crores.  Yes, these NPAs are a legacy of the UPA era. However, Jaitley failed to address the mess and mitigate the crisis despite pumping in record amount of money in the financial system. Five years down the line the NPA balloon is more inflated. This despite the fact that there has been record recovery of Loans due to pressures built by the IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy code) act and also despite the fact that the Government has been pumping money (Remember the Indrdhanush scheme of Jaitley that was supposed to solve the NPA issue) that is growing in every budget.

A shadow banking crisis 
The non banking Financial Institutions (NBFC), often called the shadow banks as they operate approximately like a bank but without the strong RBI regulations unlike banks, are undergoing a crisis of their own - which is still unfolding. The default on bond repayments by ILFS  that alone holds more than 91,000 crores of debt has raised alarms as more than 1 Lakh crores of CP are coming up for redemption in the next three months. There is severe liquidity crunch. Read details here.

A Data Credibility Crisis

For many years now reams of paper have been written questioning the new GDP series data that is showing robust growth in the GDP while most other economic indicators like export, consumption, savings and jobs have been showing a decline. In fact on many occasions the Government stopped publication of data, or delayed release of reports or simply hid the data behind bureaucratic walls to keep the narrative positive. However now there is increased discussion on the issue.

There was a celebrated leakage of unemployment report from the NSSO that showed unemployment at an all time high which NITI aayog had termed as unofficial. However now the data is official and the unemployment rate indeed is at a 45 year high. 

The former chief economic advisor to the Modi Government has written a research paper that claims that the Indian GDP growth rate may have been overestimated by as much as 2.5% and so claims that the GDP growth rate may actually have been between 3.5% to 5.% and not close to 7% as estimated. While this has been disputed - no cogent analytical defense has been put to counter this by the Government. However even the Economic survey has accepted a slightly downward revision of GDP estimates.

Economy slowing down

After initial state of denial the Government has now accepted that the economy is indeed slowing down. The Quarterly GDP growth rate in the last two quarters of 2018-19 were 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. 

Not necessarily Fiscally "prudent"
One of the credits that Jaitley has always given to himself is that under his stewardship the fiscal deficit has been under control and has largely kept to the roadmap decided upon in the last Chidambaram Budget. On paper this looks like true too. The government estimates 3.4% fiscal deficit as against a target of 3.3%. This does not look bad at all - but is it possible??

Specially because the Government revenues from almost all sources fell below its target (budgeted revenues). This is true even on account of direct taxes which otherwise have risen robustly. So much so that the Government fell short of budgeted revenues of close to 1.5 Trillion rs. - yes thats 1.5 Lakh Crores. So how did government manage the fiscal deficit figure by cutting spends in the last quarter, delaying payments in the last month of the year and hence the payment was made after April and managing subsidies levels by keeping them on off balance sheet items for example loans taken by FCI to pay for those subsidies which will have to be paid by the Government in the next financial year but that helped them keep the value away from govt balance sheet for the current financial year. Read a more detailed account of this jugglery here. 

The government also showed better collection on the disinvestment front but even that was jugglery because it generated money by cross disinvestment (meaning one PSU buying another). This generates money for the govt but does not address the basic problem of loss making PSUs eating way government resources. Also the new MPC with the last dissenter Viral Acharya having resigned is more amenable to offer higher dividends to the govt to fill the gap. But as you may have understood none of these is a structural improvement in the management of the economy.

The nut and shell of the above mumbo-jumbo is that the real fiscal deficit is much higher and that the government show of fiscal prudence is largely window dressing.

Stagnant/declining exports

The exports sector has been languishing for more than half a decade now. There has been no economy in the history that has grown at 8+ percent without a robust export scenario. This is one area where the Government also has not tried to hide data (as if they could have) but at the same time has done precious little to boost it up. One of the reasons I find Sitharaman a wrong person for the FM' job is her failure to do anything on this front as the commerce minister. Our export to GDP ratio needs to improve if we are serious about 8+% growth.

Consumption slowdown is real and large

In March 2019, sales of cars, motorcycles, scooters, commercial vehicles (CVs) and tractors fell in comparison to March 2018. They fell by 6.87%, 14.27%, 25.19%, 4.71% and 14.97%, respectively. Data over the last five years (between April 2014 and March 2019) shows this is only the second time when growth of all five economic indicators has fallen during the course of a month. Before March, the only other time this had happened was in February 2019, when sales of cars, motorcycles, scooters, CVs and tractors dropped by 4.33%, 0.58%, 12.14%, 8.77% and 0.52%, respectively. (Data : Mint). The economic survey now accepts this severity in slowdown.

Private Investment stagnant/declining 

One real headache have been lack of enthusiasm among corporate to bring about robust investment in private businesses. This despite push to Make in India, Improved ease of doing business, and focus on startup india. Probably this is an indication of lack of confidence in the Indian economy for now. This may also be because of after-shock of demonetisation and a patchy implementation of the GST regime. Fresh investment in the economy has plunged to a 15 year low. 

Household Saving declining

A robust private investment requires availability of fund in the economy to invest. Out of many indicators that point to availability of funds to invest is the savings rate of the economy. The historically high domestic saving rate in India has been steadily declining and that should worry policy makers because it is an indication of investments that can happen in the future of the economy.

Is there something positive in the scenario ??

Obviously yes, there are a few - 

For one our fiscal deficit may not be as rosy as Government makes it look but it isn't something to be worried too. A more honest government would have accepted that there are headwinds and so to stimulate growth certain substantial slippages in fiscal prudence has been allowed to happen. 

Second, despite low exports the Forex reserve situation is not just comfortable but has been further growing too. So we are nowhere near the 1999 situation. This has been possible because of steady FDI inflows in the economy. We have been helped on this account because of Global economic slowdown followed by Quantitative Easing in the US and the Europe, is my guess.

Third positive is that inflation is well under control - this has largely been because of strong monetary policy control under RRR followed by urjit. The MPC  without viral may not be so hawk eyed anymore. 

The other positive is that oil prices remain moderate and hence government is able to generate a bounty of sorts in taxes on petrol/diesel. The only six months when the crude had started climbing in 2018 is when modiji for the first time started to appear a weak PM. So in that sense modi government has been very very lucky. 

Final positive is that the infrastructure spending under modi 1.0 is real and widespread. One can expect it to kick in sooner or later. FM must be badly hoping that it kickstarts the consumption.

I can go on and on (for example I did not mention agriculture distress because it is so much talked about) but I think you get a drift of the economic mess that Jaitley left us with. Is this time running out - only time will tell. 

But one thing I can say for sure. A supposedly economically right wing government with brutal majority in the house should now not be incremental about economic reforms - otherwise our demographic dividend, the economic sweet spot that we have been at for almost a decade now, and the real opportunity to grow and become a world power will truly be missed. My fear is that Sitharaman is not the person to trust with such a humongous task and I will be happy if proven wrong. But at least now she cannot hide behind the names of Nehru, Gandhi and Manmohan Singh for her woes.

What does budget deliver 
Disappointment in nutshell. The budget actually cements the perception that N Sitharaman is an overrated minister - she hasn't performed in any capacity and that there is no expectations from her as the FM as well

The budget actually simply continues the trend of overestimating revenues - aready the Government has fallen short of revenues in all front but the budget estimates a 20% jump in collections over the last year's unmet targets by a huge gap I showed above how economy seems to be sloeing down everywhere - this 20% jump is almost an impossibility.

To generate these impossible figures - all kind of bad economic ideas are back
1 The cess on FPIs is a retrograde measure - will only lead to volatile and negative sentiments on the stock market.
2. The extra tax on super rich is a walk back to years when high effective tax rates led to wide tax evasion and flight of capital to tax heavens. In fact it is not even clear how the additional will help because it cannot be substantial amount even.
3. Criminal charges and punitive action on failing to utilise the CSR fund mandated by law is out of dictators book. Government departments routinely miss utilising funds that they get towards development expenditure - by this logic all of them should be prosecuted under criminal laws. This is insane - criminalising a civil offence - in fact to me this is not even an offence
4 Government borrowing from International markets is a very very bad idea. Someone should make the FM read the history of east asian economies their boom based on foreign borrowings and then their overnight meltdown. In India where governments of all hues and cries have been irresponsible and opaque about the quality of their spending - borrowing overseas is sure recipe for disaster.
5. Government finally seems to be waking up to the enormity of the NPA mess and so has allocated lion's share to recapitalising of PSU banks. However required this step is - it means the government will have further less to spend on developmental expenses.

Very bad budget overall.

All in all the budget fails to understand the mess

Movie Review - "Article 15"

Anubhav sinha had delivered a very impressive "mulk" last year. (My review here) and so I was looking forward to "Article 15" with much anticipation. Unlike the mulk experience - this time around, one knew the theme of the movie. Also now one was entering the movie hall with more expectations from the director. So it was difficult to be surprised. 

So as I walked out of the theatre, I feel that Anubhav Sinha has delivered another well crafted movie on a very sensitive, if not controversial, subject. He confronts us again with difficult questions and helps us visit our and society's prejudices in a dignified, balanced manner. Based on the Badaun Gang rape murder case deep in the UP heartland the movie is a difficult and disturbing watch right from the word go.

A young educated urbane elite IPS officer is transferred to a typical UP village post where he is confronted with a case of three missing teenage girls, a prejudiced, rotten and broken policing & administrative system and caste discrimination so deep rooted that it is almost a culture accepted by both the discriminator and the discriminated. The story is a meandering, moving tale of this officer's experience of negotiating through this case coming to terms with the "in the face" realities of life in the hinterland so removed from the liberal - mostly just environments we live in. One could call it a crime thriller but it is actually a social comment more than a who done it mystery.

A few sequences, hopefully, will haunt the guilty conscious of audience for some time - like the two hapless girls in a bus, or the image of them hanging from a tree or when the third girl is eventually found or a sweeper cleaning a gutter are images that should be remembered as scars on our society at large. As we draw close to the end we start feeling as hopeless as the lady doctor in the

Government hospital, or the witnesses of the crime who are part of the system, or finally the lone fighter protagonist in the movie.

The movie remains focussed on the story and the theme throughout never taking a break to relax or divert - and to the credit of the director - despite this razor sharp focus the audience remain engaged in this difficult to narrate story. The director takes no help from song, dance or special effect sequences. There were so many instances when the director could have lost his way and could have made the movie a commercial pot boiler but thankfully that does not happen. He directed the movie with someone who wanted to make a powerful statement. The only regret will be the statement could have been delivered more powerfully but for the choice of Ayushman for the protagonist role.

I think the biggest weakness of the movie is Ayushman Khurana - a more powerful actor in this role would have made this movie much much higher on impact. Ayushman is sincere, works hard on the role but I think he simply isn't a great actor. He is more suitable to breezy, chocolaty roles. He is impressive in "Article 15" but "Mulk" was more powerful simply because its cast was better chosen. 

"Article 15", I think carried itself on the shoulders of Sayani gupta, Kumud Mishra and Manoj Pawha. In fact Manoj pawha is yet another example of how some really great talent is wasted in the Bollywood in frivolous routine roles. He spurns another super performance in his understated and non-descript role quite like he did in Mulk. Isha Talwar did not have a role and one wonders why she did the movie - probably because it was offered to her. Rest of the cast had little to register their presence as this was a Hero's movie.

The director is ably supported by the right mix of background music, good cinematography and a powerful script laced with crisp dialogues. All in all a very good movie yet again by Anubhav Sinha - he looks like someone who is all set to write off his forgettable past with uninspiring initial movies. The strongest positive of "article 15" is that it is not a super hero movie - the protagonist is a real police officer limited by constraints and needs help. He is no rajanikant who magically sets things right. While the movie ends on a positive note - one feels that was the only fictional part of the story.

My recommendation for a good watch - do add to your list - just don't go when you are in the mood for a light hearted, breezy flick. Instead, expect a engrossing, mind stirring - real tale of the contradictions in the Indian life. 

Oh !! And before I forget there is a really good rap at the end - do watch it to release some of the tense knots that you may have developed watching a disturbing but well crafted story. Enjoy !! 

Notice the NOTA

Recently I suggested to a friend that I am considering using the NOTA (None of the above) button this election. His reaction surprised me - he went into a monologue of how NOTA is like wasting your vote etc. I will not bore you with the details as you must have heard of how using the NOTA option is a total waste of your franchise etc. However that interaction got me thinking and I concluded that most people opposing NOTA option in our election process either lack clear thinking or are plainly being politically biased. Here is what I think

First let's get our facts right
NOTA currently does not have any electoral value. It means that even if NOTA gets majority vote a real candidate contesting with the next highest number of votes will be declared elected. In the EVM world of elections - this is an option equivalent to casting a paper vote without stamping any of the choices.

So then, why am I even discussing NOTA as an option.

NOTA is a message from the voter to all Parties
Think of NOTA as a message to all parties that we are unhappy with the choice of candidates offered by them in our constituency. Think of it as a pressure group asking political parties to do more due diligence in choosing and offering us with a candidate with better merit.

It also is a signal that we as electorate will not be satisfied with choosing the better of many bad candidates offered to us. It is a message that we are now more ambitious, more demanding and more imaginative in our expectations.

When NOTA starts attracting more number of votes it can result into one or more of the following many possibilities 

(a) It can make the political parties sit and do the arithmetic as to how these votes can affect their chances of win/lose. Obviously that will result into they applying their minds better to choosing better quality candidates.

(b) It can encourage meritorious candidates who wish to make a difference by creating an impact in public life but are overwhelmed by the need to be a part of the decapitated system, structure and processes of mainstream political parties.

(c) On a more idealistic note - it can result into many other smaller parties to erupt from nowhere in search of satisfying these dissatisfied voters.

(d) It may make our policy makers sit up and define a political process that may run into many stages so that a candidate is actually chosen by real majority (that is he/she must defeat NOTA as option as well)

(e) At the least it should make our political parties involve the local public more in choice of candidates.


(f) It may also signal an end to elections being referendum on a person/party like a presidential elections and it may shift the focus to local issues - which should happen in a truly federal democracy.

Difference between indifferent and disappointed citizen

A back of the paper calculation will tell us that between 30 to 50% of electorate does not vote currently. There are primarily three categories of people who do not vote -
One, those who do not yet know their right to vote, do not yet understand their duty to vote and do not realise the power of their vote.
Two, those who are disappointed by our democratic choices offered and hence do not go to the polling booths
Three, indifferent people who don't care.

Most of you would agree that the first category is declining steadily as India becomes more and more politically aware and vocal country. And that there will always be a small percentage that will remain in the third category.

NOTA however is a powerful option for the second category. These politically active and concerned category should go out and at least register a NOTA. This shall ensure that they participate in the democratic process and register their point of view - however much we may dislike their disappointment. Further, it reduces the chances of bogus voting in their names.

But voting NOTA may get the worse candidate chosen 
This is the most often given argument against NOTA and nothing can be more laughable an argument. This argument assumes that bereft of those people who do not feel good about all the candidates on offer - the majority was in fact with the worse choice. And if this was true why do we call that candidate the worse choice !?

Then why do so many people oppose NOTA
If you ask me this question, my answer would be - "No idea". Because most people whom I have heard opposing NOTA offer some vague - "NOTA is a waste of your vote" or that "NOTA is like dereliction of your duty as a citizen" or some such phrase without offering a reason or logic to such flat judgements.

I realised that most people (not all however) resist NOTA because their mental arithmetic tells them that more people choosing NOTA may lead to their favourite candidates losing the election. This of course is then a farce to discuss with such biases. 

The only valid argument currently is that NOTA votes do not have an electoral value as of now. However, your vote to NOTA is still a message to those who should but do not care for what you feel about the choices you are offered as your leaders.

So. am I suggesting you to vote NOTA??

No, surely not. I neither advocate nor oppose NOTA. When you make up your mind on whom to vote for - keep NOTA as a valid option. Weigh your choices - decide on the best candidate out of the given GOOD choices. However, I am surely suggesting Do NOT choose the better of the bad alternatives. If you feel that the candidates offered are not even of acceptable quality - go out and press the NOTA button. The point is simple NOTA is a valid option for every voter.

One last thing - whatever you do - whomever you choose - even if you choose NOTA, please do go out and vote. Because we must matter. 

The curious case of ONGC

One of the things that our Finance Minister Arun Jaitley proudly tweets, blogs and speaks about is the fine management of economy his ministry has purportedly done - by broadly keeping it to the declared objective of fiscal prudence. However a simple bird's eye view will puncture many holes in that achievement. 

Let's start with meeting the disinvestment target by the Government. One news story caught my eye. One of the Navratna PSUs ONGC's (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) cash reserves have depleted by 98%, down from Rs 9,511 crore in March 2017 to Rs 167 crore in Sept 2018. On the other hand by the end of Financial year 2018 the debt on the company was close to 25000 crores. 

What has this to do with fiscal prudence of Jaitley's budgeting skills. Well ONGC is a living example of accounting jugglery of Jaitley's finance ministry to make the Government balance sheet look good and he can also claim meeting disinvestment targets in front of cameras. But here is the catch - this is not disinvestment at all. It is squeezing cash out of the company to bolster Government balance sheet. And ONGC is not alone. 

You see - a genuine attempt to disinvest Air-India failed abjectly. Even the great modi government could not get it done. So then the government did not even try to move ahead on other ailing PSUs like the IDBI bank. LIC - a 100% government ownership company was made to invest in IDBI bank - which announced a loss of 13000 crores in that financial year. And then Government made ONGC buy its stake in HPCL  for which ONGC - an almost debt free company had to raise huge debt. This is at best cross-disinvestment. One Government company buys shares of another government company from the Government. Now the ownership of HPCL as a result has been transferred to ONGC from the government but wait ONGC is owned by the Government. In short - ONGC was made to pay cash to the Government. This is despite the fact that ONGC made a dividend payment which was also a 1000 odd crores more than the last year. Of Course in all such transactions - the retail investor saw his value get destroyed because of such poor corporate Governance. So ONGC lost about 37% of its market capitalisation in the Modi years. 

And by the way - ONGC was supposed to raise its crude oil production meanwhile - however for the last five years as well the decline its crude production continued as was the case before 2014 too. All in all then this constraints ONGC's ability to actively drill for more oil in the immediate future which also thus caps its possible value creation. It has seen a recent improvement in crude production in the last financial year.

And no, this is not all of the jugglery of Jaitleyji did to manage the fiscal deficit on his books. FCI was forced to take loans to cover for food subsidies that remain unpaid in the financial year 2018-19 to the extent of about 60,000 crores. In simple terms what it means is that he shifted a liability that should have appeared on the government books to a PSU book. This of course remains a burden to paid next year. 

Not just that - after a lot of push and pulls and resistance from the RBI Jaitleyji was also successful in getting the RBI to trasfer a surplus of Rs 50000 crores denting the cash reserves with the RBI too. All in all the government has been shoring up cash from all ways and means keeping the corporate governance so close to Modiji's heart aside.

Why would all these be needed - because the announcement and implementation of various schemes left right and center needs to be funded. While, after all the tax reforms that Jaitleyji claims to have done, the tax mop-up of the Government fell short by a shocking 1.6 trillion rupees from the budget value in 2018-19. The 2019-20 budget actually expects to collect a figure higher than this missed budgeted figure by a 10 plus percent.

So, in short the government seems to be bleeding cash from PSUs, cross disinvesting to generate money, pushed the RBI to transfer higher surplus and failed to mop up budgeted taxes by a huge margins. What this concludes to is that the harmless looking revision of fiscal deficit from a budgeted 3.3% (which was also higher than committed three years ago) to 3.4% is also jugglery. The actual fiscal deficit is much larger and most probably will figure either in revised numbers or next year's budget. In fact looking at the gap in tax mop-ups the revised figure of GDP growth rate of 7% also looks doubtful. This (mis)management of course will have to be paid by the tax payers and share holders and investors in PSUs and LIC etc. 

No wonder then that modi government is pitching this election not on "vikas" but on "Nationalism" and "religious" tone. What is interesting is that Modiji seems to be winning anyways. Enjoy the ride.

Petrol, Diesel and Elections !?

India is a country of contractions - we are ruled by a supposedly economically Right wing party - who can be said to have followed a broadly welfarist approach to Governance over the last five years. One expects a largely capitalist approach to markets from modiji and what you get often is an interfering, meddling and regulating government. Why does that  happen - the simple answer to that is elections.

Crude Oil Price - One month (Mar-Apr) - Source - tradingeconomics.com

Sample this over the last one month the crude oil prices have gone up by approx 10% (12% if we go by prices two days back) from approx $59 to $65. However, the petrol prices in India (basis Delhi Retail Prices) have barely moved from Rs. 72.85 a litre to Rs 73.05 per litre and Diesel Prices have risen from Rs 66.40 per litre to, hold your breath, Rs. 66.55 per litre.

Petrol-Diesel retail price - Delhi
src : mypetrolprice.com

Some bhakts may start smiling - see government is worried about the burden of inflationary pressures due to this on the Aam Aadmi. Hold on to your smiles and take a selfie as you read this. Because the reason is not a new found welfarist economic policy but the reason is lok sabha elections. It is almost a trend now - a few weeks before any major election the Modi government will shadow control the petrol diesel prices so that they do not move upwards and create a dissonance among voting public. 

I had written a facebook post way back on 12th May 2018 when a crucial Karnataka assembly elections were going on. At that time too Crude oil price (Indian basket) shot up 9+% in one month. Karnataka elections have ensured that in India - fuel prices have inched up less than 1%.

And then later I had written a detailed post (Read here ) on how the petrol/diesel prices surged within a week to catch up with International prices - once elections were over and the Government had no immediate elections to face.

Six Month Crude Oil Price
Src : tradingeconomics.com

And just as a proof to what I am saying here are two charts - one showing six months movement of International crude oil and the other petrol/diesel retail prices in India. Look at the close correlation in their movements - showing clearly that the government wasn't otherwise too worried about micromanaging fuel prices.

Six Months Retail Price (Petrol-diesel)
src - mypetrolprice.com

So dear reader - take my advice if you did not last November - on the last day of this election season - top your fuel tanks because if the International crude prices keep showing the same trend as they have been lately - then you will see a sudden surge in petrol/diesel prices.

This shadow regulation is so wrong at so many levels that people should respond to it with their votes. First, Petrol and Diesel have been deregulated and so they are marked to market now. The only way government should now be able to influence fuel prices is through change in taxation on the commodity. This shadow management of prices is bad policy and cheating at the same time. (Well I a repeating myself because cheating is bad policy, anyways). Secondly, such cynical short term management also reflects poorly on how the ruling party treats the general voter as a gullible, unintelligent someone with short memory who can be easily swayed into believing all is well by such short term management. Third, it also points out to the utter lack of any strong and credible opposition in our democracy. If they cannot point out to such obvious tactics - then what is the role they are playing in a democracy. Fourth, it is a sham when a economically right wing government plays worse politics then a left wing welfarist one.

I am tempted to right that perhaps Modiji is right - we Indian voters actually are such gullible even foolish people at times because we are taken for a ride by such senseless short term policy tinkering. 

Winning at any cost !?

Technically by law, there is nothing wrong with her contesting an election. Yet, figure this out.

She was arrested twice for charge of Murder even when BJP was in power in MP (from which she was finally acquitted). She was charged with abetting terrorism. The last case is still in the court. She is out on bail. She was granted bail on grounds that her lawyers submitted to the court that she is very ill - that she is suffering from cancer and that she is almost bedridden.  She is now a Lok Sabha election contestant representing the largest political party in the country which is currently in power in close to 60% of the country including the central Government.

No, I am not judging Sadhvi Pragya Thakur - she may be innocent. OR she may very well be involved in the crime. Frankly, I am neither informed enough on the case nor am expert enough to have an opinion on her culpability. But I can clearly see one thing - that the benefit of doubt in such matters is surely not on her side. A national party should have absolutely avoided fielding her as a candidate. The only other example of this kind of brazen politics was when Congress under PM Dr.

Manmohan Singh's government in 2006, inducted Shibu Soren as minister when he was out on bail on a murder charge. Both will remain in the annals of Indian political history as forgettable instance of political gambits that harmed our collective conscience for the posterity.

What is at display is a scaringly cynical form of politics that focuses on winning at any and all costs. It degrades politics to a game of table tennis where there is always the need to counter each move or messaging with another point/move to score a brownie every alternate day. To keep the pot of cooking narratives boiling hot and to snatch the headlines from each other. Actually no, it is more sinister. It is probably an effort to polarise votes along very dangerous lines of religious terrorism. A blind race to try and go to any lengths to win elections.

The polarisation is for all to see. There are enough number of my own friends and social media connects who raise questions on my not asking uncomfortable questions to opposition. But when it comes to asking inconvenient questions to modiji - they end up not just ignoring his overstepping of boundaries. Not just that, they would rather support the wrongs - with fake narratives, whataboutery, false assumptions or worse blind faith.

So in the case of  Pragya Thakur getting BJP ticket - you will hear - "So what? She isn't convicted yet or a worse one (even tweeted by the BJP) what about those who are on bail in the National Herald case." This blind comparison of a civil case to a criminal case on terror is the cynical horror that should concern us all as Indians. And then you will get a whatsapp post explaining in detail the torture she went through to justify her candidature. Never mind the fact that such torture (Right or Wrong) are used in most cases related to cases of terror, murder or such heinous crimes - and that surely does not justify her candidature till she is at least acquitted in the case. Think about it will we be OK with a Naxalite or J&K citizen charged for terror in the court and out on bail - contesting election on the ticket of a popular party in the country??

They are even ready to keep quiet on the horrendous statement from her on karkare - and I quote  “Maine kaha tera sarvanash hoga. Theek sava mahine mein sutak lagta hain. Jis din main gayi thi theek usi din iske sutak lag gaya tha. Aur theek sava mahine mein jis din atankwadiyon ne isko maara us din uska anth hua (I had told him that he will be destroyed. Sutak (a period of abstention in Hindu tradition after a death or birth in a family) comes into force within one and a quarter of month. It came into force the day I was arrested. And exactly one and a quarter months later he was destroyed by the terrorists.)"

Now I am not judging Karkare too. He may have actually been wrong or he may have been right. But it is a fact that he lost his life facing those terrorists on the field when we all including the politicians and Nationalists were hiding in safety. To equate his death to his treatment of her under custody for interrogation on a Terror related case is ......... I can't find a disgusting enough word.

But then you are in for more disgusting lows - the same people who wanted me to comment on negatives of opposition too so that the analysis is "balanced" keep quiet. I don't want to be like them. I think they have the right to keep quiet on the matter if they choose to, even if for the cynical reason of supporting Modi willy-nilly.

But no, that's not all, some of them come up with posts that justifies her statement. And more, their justification comes in the form of targeting Karkare and maligning him and his sacrifice. So you will receive whatsapp/FB posts that claims - he wasn't wearing a bulletproof jacket when on the operation, or that he was drunk during the operation. Some even pointed out to the fact that he had not fired a single bullet before he died. That in fact ASI tukaram omble was more brave and more deserving than Karkare. Conspiracy theories spinned in favour of God knows whom. What completely bypasses these minds is that even if these are facts (and they are not keep reading) they are irrelevant to what happened. He died on duty facing the terrorists.

Just for the sake of truth - All of these are fake crap - He was wearing a bulletproof jacket during the ops, He was dead sober - not drunk. The only factually correct statement is he did not fire a single bullet - but as you would have guessed it - this is also a misdirection. He did not fire a bullet because he could not, as his car was ambushed. Obviously, not because he went their to end his life so that he could get a Ashok Chakra. Who in his right minds would spin such stories.

I am really worried about the time when, and if, Pragya Thakur actually ends up winning this election. The same people will probably rejoice pointing fingers at us - as if winning the election would be a certificate that she was always right and that karkare was the one wrong.

We are witnessing a critical phase in our existence as a democracy where winning at all costs have become the objective and winning is considered as the certificate for being Right. I have always had a very strong faith in the maturity of our democracy and its systematic checks and balances. I have always believed that despite its imperfections - the loud and open democracy that we have in our country is vibrantly secure. However, this election and its debates have really weakened my faith. Let's hope this phase too shall pass.

Ps. What has happened meanwhile is that Pragya Thakur has taken back her words - she said - "“I felt that the enemies of the country were being benefited from it, therefore I take back my statement and apologize for it, it was my personal pain. He (Hemant Karkare) died from the bullets of terrorists from the enemy country, he is certainly a martyr." I think that should rest this case at least. The larger point that this post makes, remains. 

#Sunday गज़ल - अजनबी से हम

निदा फाज़ली सा. का अंदाज़-ए-बयाँ ही कुछ और था - गहरी बात सरलता से कहने की उनकी अप्रतिम खूबी मुझे उनके लाखो चाहने वालो में से एक बनती है - खुद मेरी भी पहली बार पढ़ी हुई इस गज़ल का लुत्फ़ उठाइए इस रविवार :-) 

जब से क़रीब हो के चले ज़िंदगी से हम 

ख़ुद अपने आइने को लगे अजनबी से हम

कुछ दूर चल के रास्ते सब एक से लगे
मिलने गए किसी से मिल आए किसी से हम

अच्छे बुरे के फ़र्क़ ने बस्ती उजाड़ दी
मजबूर हो के मिलने लगे हर किसी से हम

शाइस्ता महफ़िलों की फ़ज़ाओं में ज़हर था 
ज़िंदा बचे हैं ज़ेहन की आवारगी से हम 
(शाइस्ता - सभ्य, शिष्ट)(फ़ज़ाओं - वातावरण, माहौल)(ज़ेहन - मन, विचार,सोच)

अच्छी भली थी दुनिया गुज़ारे के वास्ते 
उलझे हुए हैं अपनी ही ख़ुद-आगही से हम 
(ख़ुद-आगही : अपने आप को समझना, आत्म-मंथन)

जंगल में दूर तक कोई दुश्मन न कोई दोस्त 
मानूस हो चले हैं मगर बम्बई से हम
(मानूस : जिसकी घबराहट दूर हो गयी हो, मुहब्बत करनेवाला)----------------------------------------------- निदा फाज़ली सा.

Congress Manifesto : दाल तड़का

Election 2019 will be remembered as a milestone for many reasons - one of them would be the entry of Election manifesto in the public debate space. No election that I remember generated so much interest in manifesto of a Party as did this year's Congress Manifesto. In fact, a few hours after it was released - a few friends on the FB started asking for my views on the manifesto. This may make one feel like a celebrity as people look forward to one's views. No such delusions with me - I know most of them asking (not all though) see me as a Congress sympathiser and so they may be wringing their hands in glee as certain IT cell has already pronounced this manifesto as criminal minded, anti-national and pack of lies. So for whatever it is worth - here it is. (You can read the entire manifesto here )

There are a few refreshing changes in the manifesto - For one, It stays away from becoming a tirade or critique of current government. Rather it tries to set its own agenda. If someone reread the "Sankalp Patra" of BJP for 2014 - instead of listing its promises it read more like a list of grudges with the UPA government of the time.

Well Structured
It is very well structured and lucid. Just to be fair their last one was also not bad but this one is far better. Its presentation is attractive unlike the ones INC used to spurn out in the past. BJP's professional communication has started to rub on the INC off late, however they are still no match to the BJP on that front. 
So this one is neatly structured in six parts
काम - focussed on Employment and Growth
दाम - focussed on Economy
शान - focussed on Hard and Soft power of Country
सुशासन - focussed on Governance
स्वाभिमान - Focussed on Weaker Sections
सम्मान - Focussed on Individuals

Each section further subdivided neatly into specific target segments catered to. So full marks for clarity of vision and its communication. Let's look at brasstacks then.

More Concrete than Ever
The second refreshing change is that the manifesto goes beyond a statement of intention. Unlike earlier manifestoes of both the BJP and the Congress - this manifesto has at least a few concrete, actionable proposals. Earlier a manifesto used to read as a list of good sounding directional statements - almost nil on specifics. You can check their 2014 manifestoes here for Congress and here for the BJP. (Could not get the direct link for the BJP).

Here is the sample of some concrete proposals in the Manifesto
1. NYAY scheme to Guarantee a minimum 12000 PM income to poorest 20%
2. 34 Lakh jobs by March 2020 - identifying where thes jobs will come from
3. Separate Kissan Budget every year
4. Establishing National Commission on Agricultural Development and Planning.
5. Double expenditure on healthcare to 3 per cent of GDP by 2023-24.
6. Right to Healthcare Act & guarantee free diagnostics, out-patient care, free medicines & hospitalisation
7. Compulsory & Free school education from Class I to Class XII
8. implement the Forest Rights Act, 2006 - No forest dweller to be unjustly evicted.
9. Enact privacy law and restrict Aadhaar use to the original purposes.
10. Cities/towns to directly elected mayors and introduce right to housing
11. Scrap Niti Aayog & reconstitute Planning Commission with re-defined responsibilities.
12. double the allocation for Education to 6 per cent of GDP in the next 5 years
That's an impressive list of concrete proposals. There are a few more but I think you get the idea. These are proposals on which you can hold them to answer later as to what they did or did not do.

Largely Welfarist 
The manifesto takes a rather welfarist approach to Governance - which is a step back from Dr. MMS's reformist approach with a capitalistic tilt. Its three primary offerings the NYAY scheme, Universal Health Care and Compulsory and Free school education are all subsidy driven and would obviously ask for a very large dole out.

The message is clear - the Congress has not, it never did, develop the confidence to ask for votes based on development. That is not surprising because it had failed to cash in on some real and positive development of the UPA era.

However Reformist too
The positive side of the manifesto is that it promises some broad reforms that are badly needed and are long overdue. Largely in the administrative domain - Like police, Judiciary and Local Governance. The promises made here are indeed very positive. Here is a mouth watering list

• Autonomy to institutions (arguably the Modi government has done maximum damage to institutional autonomy), 
• scrapping of NITI aayog (the NITI aayog has turned out to be more of a power center under NDA that meddles with other autonomous institutions rather than focussing on robust policy formulation and implementation), 
• Single GST rate (While Modi govt deserves credit for finally implementing the GST - it is neither one tax nor simple currently)
• Implement Direct Tax Code (The draft proposal of the DTC during UPA-II was completely forgotten by the Modi government. This would be single biggest boost to the honest middle class tax payer of India, if implemented)
• Review of RTI (Another powerful Law that was blunted by the Modi government)
• New model of Town/Cities governance by directly elected mayors is a very interesting and powerful idea. 

Again there are more but I think you get the drift. It is progressive in its approach too.

Maintains Continuity
The manifesto promises to continue with some of the successful ideas of Modi Government like Swachh Bharat, Rural housing and it also promises to continue work on some long term desirable goals like that of Make in India - by focussing on the increasing the share of manufacturing to the economy.

Promises Personal Liberty
By offering to restrict use of Aadhar to its original mandate, or by promising to scrap the sedition law which was misused even by earlier Congress government, or by ensuring the implementation of 33.33% women quota and a slew of other measures the manifesto tries to bring about a debate on the line to be drawn between privacy and state intervention in personal freedom. This is badly needed in today's fast changing world.

Million Dollar Question
One of the most severe criticism of the manifesto, and justifiably so, is where would the Party generate all the resources required for funding some of the huge promises. There are two ways to look at this question - one, that a manifesto cannot be expected to answer that question because that's not the objective. In any case - what is important is an intent to bring about the change - the constraints will remain and solutions have to be found out. One will have wait and see how they implement it. An optimistic economist will see this as doable by a judicious mixture of undoing some legacy subsidies and subsuming them, by depending on the expanding economy - hence counting on the constantly growing tax kitty and of course some additional tax levies. The manifesto just says that it expects this cost to reduce overtime as more people are pulled out of poverty. That at least continues to be true even now.

The other way to look at it - real concern. Given the history of our meandering, bureaucratic and complex implementation cycles - such proposals can play havoc with the fiscal balance which can never be happy development. The jury is still out.

What about the criticism 
The manifesto has erupted emotions of all kind and there have been a string of criticism - lets spare a couple of lines to each 

1. It wastes Taxpayers' Money
Wastes or Invests has to be seen during implementation. There is little evidence to prove that the current government did not waste taxpayer money, as well. So either ways this is not really a strong argument, if you like some of the proposals.
2. It is anti-national
Please. Spare me the nationalistic rhetoric. A peacemaking approach to terrorism is what has been Congress principle for decades. That is different from the current approach of aggressive domination - but surely nothing anti-national about it. In fact it is bold political gambit to appeal to those who may already be feeling frustrated by the loud pitched, over the top war mongering as the solution to terrorism. And yes reviewing AFSPA is not anti-national. BJP itself had promised it for kashmir in 2014 and has done it for north eastern states. The point is - you may disagree with the policy but calling it anti-national is empty rhetoric.

3. It is old wine in new bottle
True to some extent. Many proposals in the manifesto has been there in Congress manifestoes over the decades. One can only measure the extent of push they got under various regimes. However, as I pointed out in this note - there are interesting, well thought out and positive new ideas as well. Also it is inevitable - true of the current BJP government also. Already the BJP is saying five years is too less to implement everything.

4. It offers doles to fetch votes.
This criticism is just being cute. Obviously an election manifesto sells its ideas to get votes. The subsidy bill of current government has actually grown despite a low oil prices and an expanding economy. Many of its schemes are doles too - whether they be reservations, insurance or Kisan samman. The fact is it will be decades before we are able to exorcise governments of welfarist policy. On a different note for an economy like India that is needed as well - a mix of welfare and growth approaches to balance the inequity in the system. I am sure as we see the BJP manifesto coming out - we shall see promises there too.

Final Thoughts

All in all this manifesto is a sincere effort to sell ideas - to bring debate back to policy and Governance and as an answer to the high pitched rhetoric of Modiji around nationalism and religious fervour. The devil of course lies in the details of its implementation. It looks like a very ambitious vision - will face many roadblocks of constraints and hence like always will have to be done in phases and with delays. The point is that we cannot brush it away as a useless piece of paper - if it appeals to you too, it needs to be tried. At the least it has and will force the BJP to answer some real questions on real issues facing India.

Institutional Surrender Intensifies !?

You must be aware that the Election Commission allowed the Movie on Narendra Modi to release in April while it considered the release of a book on Rafale controversy in violation of the Election Code of Conduct. They probably will not stop Modiji to inaugurate a Temple in UAE the foundation stone of which was also laid down by the PM.

It is nothing new - Governments try to do surrogate advertising or promotion trying to bypass the code of conduct without technically violating it. The problem of course is differential treatment to cases by a constitutional body like that of the EC. It is already dragging its feet on the matter of Governor Kalyan singh calling for need to elect BJP again or on the matter of Amit shah calling the Indian Army Modi ki Army - by referring earlier matter to the President while taking circuitous route on the second one.

And then pops on your DTH tv channels a new channel - Namo TV dedicated to speeches and rallies of Namo. In an era where you have to choose which channels you wish to be broadcasted on your TVs - this channel simply pops up on your TV one fine day - without needing your permission. And to top it - this channel started just like that - it never applied for a broadcast licence - no permissions taken. It also does not have a compulsory security clearance and this makes the enterprise illegal under broadcast laws.

Interestingly the I&B ministry hinted to media that NaMo TV doesn't need conventional clearances since its not a regular channel, but an 'advertising platform' being carried by service providers (similar to, say, The Home Shopping Network). LOLssss. While at least Tata Sky has claimed it is a News Channel.

In short if - Namo channel continues to broadcast with all these lapses - and is thumbed into your chosen set of channels - yet again two other important institutions will have surrendered to powers that be - the Prasar Bharti and more worryingly the Election Commission. Worrying but not surprising. Really !!

Movie Review - Badla

The repertoire of Sujoy ghosh as the director has some fairly forgettable films - like "Home Delivery" and "Aladin" - a sweet but unsuccessful "Jhankar Beats" and two very impressive "Kahani - 1 & 2". The latest one "Badla" firmly establishes the genre in which he is best - Badla is everything a movie can ask for from a suspense-thriller.

When was the last time you watched a movie that starts and finishes in a one BHK beautifully furnished flat, the only solace in which is a window with a view to a busy street in a happening British city, revolving around just three main characters and yet you remain glued to your seat, latching on to every scene and word - guessing what comes next. You only go out of that room to recreate the scenes of the story but you are back immediately.

I remember having that experience as a kid, watching a movie "Ek ruka hua faisla" on the door-darshan because that movie did not get any theatres for commercial release. However, that movie was another era and hence is no basis for comparison.

This one weaves almost an Agatha Christie murder mystery and I don't find a better simile because the movie is set in so clearly stated british environment, tones and style. Consider this - a murder happens in a room of a hotel 200 miles away in a snow clad place with only one tram-ish transport to and from the hotel. The body is in the bathroom showered with Pounds (or were those Euros 😃 ) and the suspect with her fingerprints on the vase that was used to kill the victim, sitting beside the body trying to save him when the police enters the scene. The suspect is screaming there is someone else in the room and pleads the police officer for help as the officer arrests the suspect. There is absolutely no signs of anyone having entered or left the room and there is no evident possibility of anyone having possibly done that. And yet there will be no suspense or thrill if this obvious suspect would be the killer. Would there be?? 😉 And while I am tempted to take you through the very Aghtha Christie-stic twists and turns of the plot but I think you are already sitting up believing me when I say that it is a Agatha murder mystery alright - so I rather suggest that you watch it - in a theatre, mind you. And let me assure you there were no spoilers in this review till now. You will enjoy the movie as much as I did even after reading this review.

I have often said that good cinema is about imaginative storytelling and here is another movie that proves it. You come out and say well it was a simple story - then why the hell were you sitting on the edge the seat for the full 121 minutes with gaping mouth and appreciating mind. Because the story is narrated in a gripping style, you are already curious about what comes next. A very tightly written script and tighter screenplay does a marvellous job - as does a very crisp and still fluent editing. It's an unputdownable murder mystery.

Taapsee Pannu turns out another stellar performance after "Pink", "Mulk" and "Shabana". She is talented and often her talent is wasted in movies like "Manmarziya" and "Judwaa-2". She holds on with confidence against the Big-B perfectly portraying the young, successful, sharp witted independent business woman who loves her hubby and the kid and yet is analytical, poised, confident, controlled, ambitious, liberal, evil - even cold almost sinister. Taapsee plays the emotions although the effort shows. Yet she does not let this movie become just a Big-B movie.

Amitabh Bachchan is Big-B. I generally cannot imagine anyone else in the roles he does in such a movie. In this movie you won't too. Think!! Two people sitting in a room narrating a story to you - you will not be bored only if you have the voice, eyes, delivery and style of Big-B. Yet again he wins me over as his long time fan. In fact, I relate so much to the first half of his character - cold, analytical, data/fact driven and always asking for the other aspect of the case.

And yes - some very crisp, timely and unforgettable dialogues are like the icing on the cake. Here are some favourites
"बदला लेना हर बार सही नहीं होता लेकिन माफ़ कर देना भी हर बार सही नहीं होता"
"वो मुर्ख होता है जो सिर्फ सच जानता है पर सच और झूठ का फर्क नहीं जानता"
"सच वही होता है जो साबित किया जा सके"

I tried hard but can't find a fault in the plot or picturisation. Maybe the only problem with this movie is that it is not for light casual watching - because a few seconds of distraction can cause you to lose a thread. Or that at the end you realise that movie did not have a song to let you relax and eat your popcorn, maybe. A few people may disagree with me when I say that I love movies the way "Badla" ends. Simply.

Badla is a "must see" recommendation from me - a movie that helps you realise that there are at least three aspects to every story/issue/case - my side, your side and the truth. Enjoy yourselves - and let me know later how it was.