Forget the war we haven't even won a battle

Since the Corona driven lockdown happened in India - I have been writing small notes as "The lockdown diary" on the FB. This is the fourth one in the series and while I started to write this one too on the FB but then it built into a little more detailed post. So thought of adding it to my blog here. But before that proof that we participated in the light show last night on the 5th of April, just so that "bhataks" may also read this entire post. Just kidding.

You may want to read the first few entries of the diary here (only the first one is relevant here though)
The Lockdown diary - I
The lockdown diary - II
The lockdown diary - III

On last count, India had total 4067 confirmed COVID19 cases reported till now; an additional 693 new cases reported since yesterday. Total 109 deaths reported; 30 additional deaths have been reported since yesterday. 291 persons have recovered. (6th April Morning - data source Hotline)

According to another report, The world average of Corona infection is 155 per ten lakh of population (which is 0.0155%). In India this average is just 2.5 per 10 Lakh people. For the sake of how bad it could have gone - The US has an average of 945, Spain 2677. Italy 2069 and Germany & France has an average of 1000+ per 10 Lakh of population. (figures for 4th April, Data Source : Hotline)

This of course is pretty good show by India and so we can breathe easy for some time. In fact you may have received an IT cell forward already about how India under its able leadership has been able to arrest the growth of the Corona virus effectively. However the jury on that conclusion is still out.

There is a catch. This data hides something critical - we aren't testing deep or wide enough in India. Here is some interesting data compiled by ourworldindata.org

Total tests conducted by various countries show that the number of tests have just started to take off in India currently. Even this graph will be misleading because it may look ok if not seen in conjunction with the population
of the country.

One must note that the countries reporting most infected cases are also those who conducted highest number of tests. But as I said this is misleading unless seen in conjunction with the size of population we are dealing with. So here is another graphic.

Indian testing data look more pathetic when compared as fraction of population tested. As I suggested we aren't simply testing enough people get the real understanding of how infected we maybe.

What is important to note is that those countries reporting maximum cases of infection are conducting wide testing even as a proportion of their population. This in the long run should help them control the virus more effectively. The next question to ask is whether we are gradually increasing the tests conducted - so that we can try and utilise the lockdown period to identify most of those infected.

So it is possible that we may look good because unlike the list of developed nations above we may have more untested cases hidden in their houses. The lockdown may have just helped us ensure that these cases do not spread the infection at the rate that would have happened in regular times. Look at this graphic.

Till now India has been unable to even increase daily testing substantially leading to the unfortunate conclusion that we may be frittering away the lockdown period in not doing much.

Once again the countries that have reported most cases have consistently increased their aggressiveness to test. That is the reason for them reporting such huge numbers.

The big and short of this data is that our good looking performance about low number of infection may be misleading and cannot be corroborated unless we increase the numbers and width of testing in our country. Now I know the argument for why our testing is fewer in numbers - we are poor country and we do not have enough resources etc. - if so, I agree our testing levels will remain low - but then (a) Stop glorifying modiji because of low reported numbers and wait for a couple of months to pass a judegement on efficacy of the measures taken by GOI. (b) Ask the Government to take measures to restart the economic engine - because if the lockdown fails (which is more probable than success) in arresting the virus then India will face double whammy - deaths due to the virus and also due to the economic recession if not depression. (c) Understand that without aggressive testing - lock down is insufficient measure in the war against corona. BTW I am not saying that our good performance is necessarily false. It may be true because we did take proactive steps and lockdown has been by and large successful. I pray and genuinely wish that this data is maintained and improves further. I am simply warning against premature feeling that we have done well, Also the PM cares fund has generated liberal donations from all walks of life. This money should be utilised for wide and deep testing and isolation process. Also government has used the lockdown period to create more isolation and treatment facilites - these are good positive signals Here is a more balanced way of looking at the data

What this graph does is adjusts the spread of infection by treating the date at which first corona infection was reported in each country as the origin (it helps because India is lagging behind a few weeks in spread as well as control measures taken). What this data shows is that we are trending lower than europe and usa but higher than Japan. So not out of the woods yet. This data is little old - updated till 31st March but it will hold true because as the first graphic of this post shows we have been increasing the reported cases of infection at an increasing rate. The silver lining is that the effect of the lockdown should start kicking in from this week and if it does - we may actually start showing better trends. So hold your horses for a couple more weeks.

Some more issues for your to ponder 1. In every country the corona infection grew because it travelled from other countries in the country and then a some trigger action in which many of these foreigners participated. There was one particular super carrier in Korea (hence no trigger event so was managed much better), In Malaysia one congregation, In Italy the " Hug a Chinese" campaign and so in India was probably the tablighi jamat where a large number of people from foreign countries accumulated. For all we know the trigger points could have been the Rangpanchmi ger (cancelled but happened in large numbers) in Indore, or the Ayidhya pooja in UP or simply the festive celebration of the Thaali bajao event. To target a community for the trigger event is as foolish as we can get. But then one is not betting much on our collective intelligence. 2. Spreading positivity through the sound and light events of 22nd March and 5th April is all fine but lets desist from generating false conviction in people that we are decidedly winning the war against corona. The fact probably is it is going to be a long drawn out war and people should build a war chest to fight their personal battles too.. I know there is a long due post on economic impact as well - but as I start to write down - I feel it is not the write time to spread more of what the "bhataks will call "negativity". So enjoy your positivity till the Big Boss throws the next task to you. BTW here is the proof that we did our task as per the instructions of the Big Boss. Enjoy your cage, relax and take care all of your out there.