Petrol, Diesel and Elections !?

India is a country of contractions - we are ruled by a supposedly economically Right wing party - who can be said to have followed a broadly welfarist approach to Governance over the last five years. One expects a largely capitalist approach to markets from modiji and what you get often is an interfering, meddling and regulating government. Why does that  happen - the simple answer to that is elections.

Crude Oil Price - One month (Mar-Apr) - Source - tradingeconomics.com

Sample this over the last one month the crude oil prices have gone up by approx 10% (12% if we go by prices two days back) from approx $59 to $65. However, the petrol prices in India (basis Delhi Retail Prices) have barely moved from Rs. 72.85 a litre to Rs 73.05 per litre and Diesel Prices have risen from Rs 66.40 per litre to, hold your breath, Rs. 66.55 per litre.

Petrol-Diesel retail price - Delhi
src : mypetrolprice.com

Some bhakts may start smiling - see government is worried about the burden of inflationary pressures due to this on the Aam Aadmi. Hold on to your smiles and take a selfie as you read this. Because the reason is not a new found welfarist economic policy but the reason is lok sabha elections. It is almost a trend now - a few weeks before any major election the Modi government will shadow control the petrol diesel prices so that they do not move upwards and create a dissonance among voting public. 

I had written a facebook post way back on 12th May 2018 when a crucial Karnataka assembly elections were going on. At that time too Crude oil price (Indian basket) shot up 9+% in one month. Karnataka elections have ensured that in India - fuel prices have inched up less than 1%.

And then later I had written a detailed post (Read here ) on how the petrol/diesel prices surged within a week to catch up with International prices - once elections were over and the Government had no immediate elections to face.

Six Month Crude Oil Price
Src : tradingeconomics.com

And just as a proof to what I am saying here are two charts - one showing six months movement of International crude oil and the other petrol/diesel retail prices in India. Look at the close correlation in their movements - showing clearly that the government wasn't otherwise too worried about micromanaging fuel prices.

Six Months Retail Price (Petrol-diesel)
src - mypetrolprice.com

So dear reader - take my advice if you did not last November - on the last day of this election season - top your fuel tanks because if the International crude prices keep showing the same trend as they have been lately - then you will see a sudden surge in petrol/diesel prices.

This shadow regulation is so wrong at so many levels that people should respond to it with their votes. First, Petrol and Diesel have been deregulated and so they are marked to market now. The only way government should now be able to influence fuel prices is through change in taxation on the commodity. This shadow management of prices is bad policy and cheating at the same time. (Well I a repeating myself because cheating is bad policy, anyways). Secondly, such cynical short term management also reflects poorly on how the ruling party treats the general voter as a gullible, unintelligent someone with short memory who can be easily swayed into believing all is well by such short term management. Third, it also points out to the utter lack of any strong and credible opposition in our democracy. If they cannot point out to such obvious tactics - then what is the role they are playing in a democracy. Fourth, it is a sham when a economically right wing government plays worse politics then a left wing welfarist one.

I am tempted to right that perhaps Modiji is right - we Indian voters actually are such gullible even foolish people at times because we are taken for a ride by such senseless short term policy tinkering. 

Winning at any cost !?

Technically by law, there is nothing wrong with her contesting an election. Yet, figure this out.

She was arrested twice for charge of Murder even when BJP was in power in MP (from which she was finally acquitted). She was charged with abetting terrorism. The last case is still in the court. She is out on bail. She was granted bail on grounds that her lawyers submitted to the court that she is very ill - that she is suffering from cancer and that she is almost bedridden.  She is now a Lok Sabha election contestant representing the largest political party in the country which is currently in power in close to 60% of the country including the central Government.

No, I am not judging Sadhvi Pragya Thakur - she may be innocent. OR she may very well be involved in the crime. Frankly, I am neither informed enough on the case nor am expert enough to have an opinion on her culpability. But I can clearly see one thing - that the benefit of doubt in such matters is surely not on her side. A national party should have absolutely avoided fielding her as a candidate. The only other example of this kind of brazen politics was when Congress under PM Dr.

Manmohan Singh's government in 2006, inducted Shibu Soren as minister when he was out on bail on a murder charge. Both will remain in the annals of Indian political history as forgettable instance of political gambits that harmed our collective conscience for the posterity.

What is at display is a scaringly cynical form of politics that focuses on winning at any and all costs. It degrades politics to a game of table tennis where there is always the need to counter each move or messaging with another point/move to score a brownie every alternate day. To keep the pot of cooking narratives boiling hot and to snatch the headlines from each other. Actually no, it is more sinister. It is probably an effort to polarise votes along very dangerous lines of religious terrorism. A blind race to try and go to any lengths to win elections.

The polarisation is for all to see. There are enough number of my own friends and social media connects who raise questions on my not asking uncomfortable questions to opposition. But when it comes to asking inconvenient questions to modiji - they end up not just ignoring his overstepping of boundaries. Not just that, they would rather support the wrongs - with fake narratives, whataboutery, false assumptions or worse blind faith.

So in the case of  Pragya Thakur getting BJP ticket - you will hear - "So what? She isn't convicted yet or a worse one (even tweeted by the BJP) what about those who are on bail in the National Herald case." This blind comparison of a civil case to a criminal case on terror is the cynical horror that should concern us all as Indians. And then you will get a whatsapp post explaining in detail the torture she went through to justify her candidature. Never mind the fact that such torture (Right or Wrong) are used in most cases related to cases of terror, murder or such heinous crimes - and that surely does not justify her candidature till she is at least acquitted in the case. Think about it will we be OK with a Naxalite or J&K citizen charged for terror in the court and out on bail - contesting election on the ticket of a popular party in the country??

They are even ready to keep quiet on the horrendous statement from her on karkare - and I quote  “Maine kaha tera sarvanash hoga. Theek sava mahine mein sutak lagta hain. Jis din main gayi thi theek usi din iske sutak lag gaya tha. Aur theek sava mahine mein jis din atankwadiyon ne isko maara us din uska anth hua (I had told him that he will be destroyed. Sutak (a period of abstention in Hindu tradition after a death or birth in a family) comes into force within one and a quarter of month. It came into force the day I was arrested. And exactly one and a quarter months later he was destroyed by the terrorists.)"

Now I am not judging Karkare too. He may have actually been wrong or he may have been right. But it is a fact that he lost his life facing those terrorists on the field when we all including the politicians and Nationalists were hiding in safety. To equate his death to his treatment of her under custody for interrogation on a Terror related case is ......... I can't find a disgusting enough word.

But then you are in for more disgusting lows - the same people who wanted me to comment on negatives of opposition too so that the analysis is "balanced" keep quiet. I don't want to be like them. I think they have the right to keep quiet on the matter if they choose to, even if for the cynical reason of supporting Modi willy-nilly.

But no, that's not all, some of them come up with posts that justifies her statement. And more, their justification comes in the form of targeting Karkare and maligning him and his sacrifice. So you will receive whatsapp/FB posts that claims - he wasn't wearing a bulletproof jacket when on the operation, or that he was drunk during the operation. Some even pointed out to the fact that he had not fired a single bullet before he died. That in fact ASI tukaram omble was more brave and more deserving than Karkare. Conspiracy theories spinned in favour of God knows whom. What completely bypasses these minds is that even if these are facts (and they are not keep reading) they are irrelevant to what happened. He died on duty facing the terrorists.

Just for the sake of truth - All of these are fake crap - He was wearing a bulletproof jacket during the ops, He was dead sober - not drunk. The only factually correct statement is he did not fire a single bullet - but as you would have guessed it - this is also a misdirection. He did not fire a bullet because he could not, as his car was ambushed. Obviously, not because he went their to end his life so that he could get a Ashok Chakra. Who in his right minds would spin such stories.

I am really worried about the time when, and if, Pragya Thakur actually ends up winning this election. The same people will probably rejoice pointing fingers at us - as if winning the election would be a certificate that she was always right and that karkare was the one wrong.

We are witnessing a critical phase in our existence as a democracy where winning at all costs have become the objective and winning is considered as the certificate for being Right. I have always had a very strong faith in the maturity of our democracy and its systematic checks and balances. I have always believed that despite its imperfections - the loud and open democracy that we have in our country is vibrantly secure. However, this election and its debates have really weakened my faith. Let's hope this phase too shall pass.

Ps. What has happened meanwhile is that Pragya Thakur has taken back her words - she said - "“I felt that the enemies of the country were being benefited from it, therefore I take back my statement and apologize for it, it was my personal pain. He (Hemant Karkare) died from the bullets of terrorists from the enemy country, he is certainly a martyr." I think that should rest this case at least. The larger point that this post makes, remains. 

#Sunday गज़ल - अजनबी से हम

निदा फाज़ली सा. का अंदाज़-ए-बयाँ ही कुछ और था - गहरी बात सरलता से कहने की उनकी अप्रतिम खूबी मुझे उनके लाखो चाहने वालो में से एक बनती है - खुद मेरी भी पहली बार पढ़ी हुई इस गज़ल का लुत्फ़ उठाइए इस रविवार :-) 

जब से क़रीब हो के चले ज़िंदगी से हम 

ख़ुद अपने आइने को लगे अजनबी से हम

कुछ दूर चल के रास्ते सब एक से लगे
मिलने गए किसी से मिल आए किसी से हम

अच्छे बुरे के फ़र्क़ ने बस्ती उजाड़ दी
मजबूर हो के मिलने लगे हर किसी से हम

शाइस्ता महफ़िलों की फ़ज़ाओं में ज़हर था 
ज़िंदा बचे हैं ज़ेहन की आवारगी से हम 
(शाइस्ता - सभ्य, शिष्ट)(फ़ज़ाओं - वातावरण, माहौल)(ज़ेहन - मन, विचार,सोच)

अच्छी भली थी दुनिया गुज़ारे के वास्ते 
उलझे हुए हैं अपनी ही ख़ुद-आगही से हम 
(ख़ुद-आगही : अपने आप को समझना, आत्म-मंथन)

जंगल में दूर तक कोई दुश्मन न कोई दोस्त 
मानूस हो चले हैं मगर बम्बई से हम
(मानूस : जिसकी घबराहट दूर हो गयी हो, मुहब्बत करनेवाला)----------------------------------------------- निदा फाज़ली सा.

Congress Manifesto : दाल तड़का

Election 2019 will be remembered as a milestone for many reasons - one of them would be the entry of Election manifesto in the public debate space. No election that I remember generated so much interest in manifesto of a Party as did this year's Congress Manifesto. In fact, a few hours after it was released - a few friends on the FB started asking for my views on the manifesto. This may make one feel like a celebrity as people look forward to one's views. No such delusions with me - I know most of them asking (not all though) see me as a Congress sympathiser and so they may be wringing their hands in glee as certain IT cell has already pronounced this manifesto as criminal minded, anti-national and pack of lies. So for whatever it is worth - here it is. (You can read the entire manifesto here )

There are a few refreshing changes in the manifesto - For one, It stays away from becoming a tirade or critique of current government. Rather it tries to set its own agenda. If someone reread the "Sankalp Patra" of BJP for 2014 - instead of listing its promises it read more like a list of grudges with the UPA government of the time.

Well Structured
It is very well structured and lucid. Just to be fair their last one was also not bad but this one is far better. Its presentation is attractive unlike the ones INC used to spurn out in the past. BJP's professional communication has started to rub on the INC off late, however they are still no match to the BJP on that front. 
So this one is neatly structured in six parts
काम - focussed on Employment and Growth
दाम - focussed on Economy
शान - focussed on Hard and Soft power of Country
सुशासन - focussed on Governance
स्वाभिमान - Focussed on Weaker Sections
सम्मान - Focussed on Individuals

Each section further subdivided neatly into specific target segments catered to. So full marks for clarity of vision and its communication. Let's look at brasstacks then.

More Concrete than Ever
The second refreshing change is that the manifesto goes beyond a statement of intention. Unlike earlier manifestoes of both the BJP and the Congress - this manifesto has at least a few concrete, actionable proposals. Earlier a manifesto used to read as a list of good sounding directional statements - almost nil on specifics. You can check their 2014 manifestoes here for Congress and here for the BJP. (Could not get the direct link for the BJP).

Here is the sample of some concrete proposals in the Manifesto
1. NYAY scheme to Guarantee a minimum 12000 PM income to poorest 20%
2. 34 Lakh jobs by March 2020 - identifying where thes jobs will come from
3. Separate Kissan Budget every year
4. Establishing National Commission on Agricultural Development and Planning.
5. Double expenditure on healthcare to 3 per cent of GDP by 2023-24.
6. Right to Healthcare Act & guarantee free diagnostics, out-patient care, free medicines & hospitalisation
7. Compulsory & Free school education from Class I to Class XII
8. implement the Forest Rights Act, 2006 - No forest dweller to be unjustly evicted.
9. Enact privacy law and restrict Aadhaar use to the original purposes.
10. Cities/towns to directly elected mayors and introduce right to housing
11. Scrap Niti Aayog & reconstitute Planning Commission with re-defined responsibilities.
12. double the allocation for Education to 6 per cent of GDP in the next 5 years
That's an impressive list of concrete proposals. There are a few more but I think you get the idea. These are proposals on which you can hold them to answer later as to what they did or did not do.

Largely Welfarist 
The manifesto takes a rather welfarist approach to Governance - which is a step back from Dr. MMS's reformist approach with a capitalistic tilt. Its three primary offerings the NYAY scheme, Universal Health Care and Compulsory and Free school education are all subsidy driven and would obviously ask for a very large dole out.

The message is clear - the Congress has not, it never did, develop the confidence to ask for votes based on development. That is not surprising because it had failed to cash in on some real and positive development of the UPA era.

However Reformist too
The positive side of the manifesto is that it promises some broad reforms that are badly needed and are long overdue. Largely in the administrative domain - Like police, Judiciary and Local Governance. The promises made here are indeed very positive. Here is a mouth watering list

• Autonomy to institutions (arguably the Modi government has done maximum damage to institutional autonomy), 
• scrapping of NITI aayog (the NITI aayog has turned out to be more of a power center under NDA that meddles with other autonomous institutions rather than focussing on robust policy formulation and implementation), 
• Single GST rate (While Modi govt deserves credit for finally implementing the GST - it is neither one tax nor simple currently)
• Implement Direct Tax Code (The draft proposal of the DTC during UPA-II was completely forgotten by the Modi government. This would be single biggest boost to the honest middle class tax payer of India, if implemented)
• Review of RTI (Another powerful Law that was blunted by the Modi government)
• New model of Town/Cities governance by directly elected mayors is a very interesting and powerful idea. 

Again there are more but I think you get the drift. It is progressive in its approach too.

Maintains Continuity
The manifesto promises to continue with some of the successful ideas of Modi Government like Swachh Bharat, Rural housing and it also promises to continue work on some long term desirable goals like that of Make in India - by focussing on the increasing the share of manufacturing to the economy.

Promises Personal Liberty
By offering to restrict use of Aadhar to its original mandate, or by promising to scrap the sedition law which was misused even by earlier Congress government, or by ensuring the implementation of 33.33% women quota and a slew of other measures the manifesto tries to bring about a debate on the line to be drawn between privacy and state intervention in personal freedom. This is badly needed in today's fast changing world.

Million Dollar Question
One of the most severe criticism of the manifesto, and justifiably so, is where would the Party generate all the resources required for funding some of the huge promises. There are two ways to look at this question - one, that a manifesto cannot be expected to answer that question because that's not the objective. In any case - what is important is an intent to bring about the change - the constraints will remain and solutions have to be found out. One will have wait and see how they implement it. An optimistic economist will see this as doable by a judicious mixture of undoing some legacy subsidies and subsuming them, by depending on the expanding economy - hence counting on the constantly growing tax kitty and of course some additional tax levies. The manifesto just says that it expects this cost to reduce overtime as more people are pulled out of poverty. That at least continues to be true even now.

The other way to look at it - real concern. Given the history of our meandering, bureaucratic and complex implementation cycles - such proposals can play havoc with the fiscal balance which can never be happy development. The jury is still out.

What about the criticism 
The manifesto has erupted emotions of all kind and there have been a string of criticism - lets spare a couple of lines to each 

1. It wastes Taxpayers' Money
Wastes or Invests has to be seen during implementation. There is little evidence to prove that the current government did not waste taxpayer money, as well. So either ways this is not really a strong argument, if you like some of the proposals.
2. It is anti-national
Please. Spare me the nationalistic rhetoric. A peacemaking approach to terrorism is what has been Congress principle for decades. That is different from the current approach of aggressive domination - but surely nothing anti-national about it. In fact it is bold political gambit to appeal to those who may already be feeling frustrated by the loud pitched, over the top war mongering as the solution to terrorism. And yes reviewing AFSPA is not anti-national. BJP itself had promised it for kashmir in 2014 and has done it for north eastern states. The point is - you may disagree with the policy but calling it anti-national is empty rhetoric.

3. It is old wine in new bottle
True to some extent. Many proposals in the manifesto has been there in Congress manifestoes over the decades. One can only measure the extent of push they got under various regimes. However, as I pointed out in this note - there are interesting, well thought out and positive new ideas as well. Also it is inevitable - true of the current BJP government also. Already the BJP is saying five years is too less to implement everything.

4. It offers doles to fetch votes.
This criticism is just being cute. Obviously an election manifesto sells its ideas to get votes. The subsidy bill of current government has actually grown despite a low oil prices and an expanding economy. Many of its schemes are doles too - whether they be reservations, insurance or Kisan samman. The fact is it will be decades before we are able to exorcise governments of welfarist policy. On a different note for an economy like India that is needed as well - a mix of welfare and growth approaches to balance the inequity in the system. I am sure as we see the BJP manifesto coming out - we shall see promises there too.

Final Thoughts

All in all this manifesto is a sincere effort to sell ideas - to bring debate back to policy and Governance and as an answer to the high pitched rhetoric of Modiji around nationalism and religious fervour. The devil of course lies in the details of its implementation. It looks like a very ambitious vision - will face many roadblocks of constraints and hence like always will have to be done in phases and with delays. The point is that we cannot brush it away as a useless piece of paper - if it appeals to you too, it needs to be tried. At the least it has and will force the BJP to answer some real questions on real issues facing India.

Institutional Surrender Intensifies !?

You must be aware that the Election Commission allowed the Movie on Narendra Modi to release in April while it considered the release of a book on Rafale controversy in violation of the Election Code of Conduct. They probably will not stop Modiji to inaugurate a Temple in UAE the foundation stone of which was also laid down by the PM.

It is nothing new - Governments try to do surrogate advertising or promotion trying to bypass the code of conduct without technically violating it. The problem of course is differential treatment to cases by a constitutional body like that of the EC. It is already dragging its feet on the matter of Governor Kalyan singh calling for need to elect BJP again or on the matter of Amit shah calling the Indian Army Modi ki Army - by referring earlier matter to the President while taking circuitous route on the second one.

And then pops on your DTH tv channels a new channel - Namo TV dedicated to speeches and rallies of Namo. In an era where you have to choose which channels you wish to be broadcasted on your TVs - this channel simply pops up on your TV one fine day - without needing your permission. And to top it - this channel started just like that - it never applied for a broadcast licence - no permissions taken. It also does not have a compulsory security clearance and this makes the enterprise illegal under broadcast laws.

Interestingly the I&B ministry hinted to media that NaMo TV doesn't need conventional clearances since its not a regular channel, but an 'advertising platform' being carried by service providers (similar to, say, The Home Shopping Network). LOLssss. While at least Tata Sky has claimed it is a News Channel.

In short if - Namo channel continues to broadcast with all these lapses - and is thumbed into your chosen set of channels - yet again two other important institutions will have surrendered to powers that be - the Prasar Bharti and more worryingly the Election Commission. Worrying but not surprising. Really !!