Yakub Menon received fair trial - justice is subjective

Finally Yakub has been hanged. There was a lot of debate on whether he should be hanged or not.

Extreme opinions were exchanged. One group thought it was anti-national to think of any sympathy for him - another group identified what they called "mitigating circumstances" to show clememncy in awarding him punishment.

Some points
1. He is guilty because a fair court has held him guilty (and we must understand that the court is the competent authority to have looked into evidence and take a balanced judgement on the issue)

2. He had been given a fair trial - he has presented his case through three layers of our justice system. He had supporters (those who could empathise with his perspective) outside and inside the courts.

3. We can have a healthy difference of opinions with the court (and also with the law) but no one can question the fairness of the process in this case.

4. Many people compare outcome of this case with cases of Gujarat riots or other accused of 26/11 blast cases or that of the Rajeev Gandhi assination cases and hence feel that memon was targetted at. This may be factully true and is still a "कुतर्क". Legal system is not consistent and it cannot be consistent and it is not consistent anywhere in the world - thats because human beings run the legal system. However, each case is expected to go through the same process and each has its own merits to be judged on.
This is not to say that we must not improve the system but that we must accept the outcome of the system (which sometimes may be at variance from what we believe)

5. In the same breath we must not brand those who empathise with Yakub as anti national or apologists. We must understand that this is the beauty of this country. It allows for dissent and disagreements and so, huge debates. Those on the side of Yakub are not necessarily anti-nationalists and screaming "anti-national" at them is only killing this spirit of coexistence with differing opinions.

6. Also there is a political angle to it. Many believe that the alacrity with which he was hanged is unparalleled specially because there are many languishing in the jails still to be hanged. For many the mercy petition is stuck in the home ministry or with the president for years. Many people feel - this is because there is a political dispensation at the helms, who is out there to prove that they are decisive.

Even if this is true - I think this is not relevant. We can counter argue that the opposition was also taking political mileage by wanting to delay the hanging and that earlier governments have been delaying the execution of many others to appease their vote banks.

The fact is that there was a Government at one time who would have taken excessively guarded steps before executing a guilty and then there are Governments (may be the current one is one such) who would be less guarded. Time will test both the approaches.

In nutshell - yakub's case was fairly tried and a considered judgement made. One hopes that was the case in every such case.

CAT 2015 - New conction in old bottles

For me it is almost a ritual - writing an analytical note on the expected changes in CAT, almost every two years. Just as I sit to write this one I am remembered of my earlier post on the same.

CAT-2015 notification is out and with it is the proverbial cat out of the bag. Like always CAT brought some surprises to the aspirant students and so I am back with some loud thinking on the changes and to explain how it impacts you

Lets analyse each change one by one

1.    CAT 2015 will be conducted in two sessions in one day. The exam will be held on 29.11.2015 (Sunday).

This is in tune with the larger strategy of keeping the CAT fair. Some of you will remember that year before last CAT-2013 was conducted over a 24 day window in two slots each day. That was the most controversial CAT ever with mountains of litigation happening throughout the country questioning the fairness of the score normalization and then subsequent ranks allotted to the students. The situation improved when CAT2014 was conducted over just two days. A single day CAT would mean a more reliable ranking as it would require little or no normalization for difference in test and its toughness levels. So, we can trust this CAT results to be as fair as ever.

There is however a silverlining in the date – it provides the students with almost an extra month to prepared for as the date of CAT is now almost a month later than the anticipated date going by last 4-5 years of experience.

So, those who might have been cutting corners till now – here is your little window of opportunity to reenergize and prepare well

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2.    Duration of the examination has been increased to 180 minutes instead of 170 minutes.

No impact of this on our performance – because it affects everyone equally and hence there is no relative gain except a psychological comfort of having more time to negotiate the test.

3.    There will be three sections, ‘Quantitative Aptitude (QA)’, ‘Data Interpretation & Logical Reasoning (DILR)’ and ‘Verbal and Reading Comprehension (VRC)’. QA and VRC will have 34 questions each, and DILR will have 32 questions.

A quick back of the hand calculation will tell you that this is a cosmetic change. Till a few years ago, CAT was actually a three section neatly divided into QA, DI/LR and VA. Couple of years ago it was made a two section test by dividing the DI/LR section into two – and by attaching the DI section with the QA one and that of LR was attached with the VA section. This year it has been decided to be brought back to the original format which was followed for many years. The distribution of number of questions is actually exactly the same as was last year and they have just been regrouped. So no big surprise here.

However, this change has an important message for aspirants. The importance of the Language section has increased tremendously as was the case earlier too when it was a three/four section format. Over the last couple of years many students had resorted to the practice of doing the LR questions in the second section by devoting it a lot of time and largely bypassing the verbal portions of the second section. I have been in touch with many students who maintained that they simply do not try any of the RC passage and instead they focus on doing all the LR questions right.

So, once again Language section will become a dominant factor in ensuring a winning percentile. Time to take up your central ideas and vocabulary exercises with stronger focus.

4.    Candidates will be allotted exactly 60 minutes for answering questions in each section and they cannot switch from one section to another while answering questions in a section

I know you can visualize me smiling when reading this change. We at CH EdgeMakers have been pleading with you to create a more or less even strategy of attacking the CAT because time and again our statistical analysis told us that this is the best approach to scoring one’s highest. A timed section would just mean that the CAT itself is ensuring that you follow that strategy.

This change also underscores the fact that the CAT has increased the importance of the language section again. The students will not be allowed to shift some of their time from the verbal ability section to the QA or the LR section. Shifting some to substantial fraction of time from the verbal ability section was the predominant behavior of the students in the earlier two section format of the CAT. Further, we are forced to devote 60 minutes to 34 questions of VRC – this means that the VRC section could also increase in its toughness – which had mellowed down a bit over the last two years.

I guess for the students with a strategy the timed section does not make much difference because hopefully they were following it anyways. However, it does enforce a certain discipline in the execution of the test. Finally, do remember that you must take the language section in more depth because in any case you have devote 60 minutes to the Verbal and Reading Comprehension Section – So, it’s important that you do well there.

5.    Some questions in each section may not be of multiple choice type. Instead, direct answers are to be typed on the screen. The tutorials will clearly explain this change.

By far, this is the most interesting and fundamental change this year in the format of CAT. Initially, this was being interpreted as addition of descriptive questions to the test. Some websites went on to suggest that the students will have to type solutions on the screen.

However, this is not correct. Note the above line – taken directly from the IIM Ahmedabad press release “Instead, direct answers are to be typed on the screen”What this means is that in those questions where you do not get multiple answer choices – you will have to key in the final answer (not write the entire solution). Prof. Tathagata Bandyopadhyay Convener of CAT 2015, IIM Ahmedabad clarified in an interview later “We have decided to introduce a few questions which will require candidates to solve the problems and key-in the correct answer/s instead of just selecting the right options among the given choices. This we are planning to introduce for reducing the impact of guess work on the performance.”

If there was any proof needed that CAT cannot be cracked on the basis of so-called “tricks/short cuts/formulae” – here is one more added to it. Obviously this change has been brought about to ensure that those with conceptual clarity and depth in comprehension will do better. Guessing the answer on the basis of options are a thing of past. If one were to make a guess on what kind of questions will not carry multiple choice of answers – it would be safe to say that they would be questions which earlier could have been done/guessed by simply trying out values from the options. This means one will have to be clear of one’s approach (process) of solving a question rather than hunting for the right answer in any which way.

If you have been following my advice on CAT ever – you must have noticed the stress I give to solving each question till the very end to ensure that we get the concept right. If you have been following the above tenet – you do not have to worry much. This change actually favours you against the students of those “proverbial coaching classes/expert websites”  who are hell bent at teaching students ways and means to bypass the question through some fancy guessing or through reverse working from possible answers. 

6.    Also, we will allow use of basic on-screen calculator for computation.

While I do not like this change but it’s here for you. This change recognizes the fact that some students are generally more comfortable with numbers and they have a natural advantage over those not so familiar with numbers. The use of basic calculator takes away one’s focus from calculating to understanding, structuring and hence approaching the question right. In a way this is good because it tests more important skills needed to be a manager/leader and at the same time it is not that good a step because someone with good familiarity with numbers and an ability to work through them with back of the paper gut too is an important skill for a manager.

Anyways – it is now allowed. So how does it impact us. If one thinks logically – even the use of the basic on the screen calculator is cumbersome and time consuming exercise. So if one is good at mental calculations and quick approximations that can surely be an advantage over the competition. Remember that CAT is a relative test and not using the calculator can be a competitive edge. So my advice would be to work on one’s calculating abilities and to use the calculator only in case of long, cumbersome calculations or those calculations that need accuracy to the decimal point (which I doubt CAT ever demands).

So, my suggestion here is to ignore the fact that you will be allowed to use the calculator and keep preparing. In the actual test however, use it for cumbersome calculations and for those that requires pin point accuracy in answering the questions.

So that’s it – the changes brought about the CAT 2015, I dare say, in nut shell. J I hope this note helps you focus your energies in the next four months better. If you have any questions or doubts (even arguments against what I have written here) feel free to mail them to me to akash.sethia@chgroup.in

Most such notes that I have written over the last couple of decades, mention that “this CAT is old wine in new bottles”. But, I must say for CAT 2015 that this one may not be completely new wine, and yet it’s a new concoction in an old bottle (structure).

Reforms in Reverse Gear

Almost two decades ago, when I was studying at IIM Lucknow - I became aware of one big mistake in Economic policy of India during the Indiraji/Rajeev Gandhi era. Maintaining Governments control over the Monetary system of India. My generation is a witness to the Economic reforms under the stewardship of Dr. Manmohan singh over these two decades.

A key tenet of these reforms, an independent RBI seems to be going into the reverse gear now. Recently the Govt. announced a draft policy called the Indian Financial Policy that seems to severely restrict the autonomy of the RBI. Here is why this should not happen

 If anything we must learn from history and not repeat past errors. Indira Gandhi was an admirable leader and yet she was so wrong in creating a tight fisted control of the Government on the Indian Monetary system. She was the person behind nationalisation of the banks. What followed was decades of fiscal and monetary profligacy. Two terms that we learnt and used a lot back then were "Monetisation of Fiscal Deficit" and "Double digit inflation".

Even to an amateur in economics like me, it was easy to establish the connect. The Government of the day ran high fiscal deficit - ostensibly in the name of development - and as the system goes the fiscal deficit actually built due to non-development expenses like irrelevant subsidies, political dole outs and loss making PSUs. One of the major routes to finance this high fiscal deficit was to print more notes (monetisation) and hence increased liquidity in the system which led to runaway inflation resulting in falling value of Rupee, which in those days the RBI (read the Govt.) will maintain at artificially high levels through draconian laws like FERA and by not allowing Rupee convertibility.

Obviously it resulted in exports losing competitive edge while imports becoming very attractive. They then needed to be managed by high tarrifs, import duties and quantitative restrictions. This was a major reason (mind you not the only reason) for the economic mess we were in 1991 (for those who do not know - we were at the edge of defaulting on our payments because of a hugely deteriorated Balance of Payment (BOP) situation).

We gradually clawed back to normalcy and then quite remarkably into a high growth scenario of close to 9% GDP growth rate and modest inflation rates of 3-4% for close to a decade. This was possible because of far reaching reforms taken by subequesnt Governments both UPA and NDA. The key architect of this recovery was Dr. Manmohan Singh, first as the FM and then as the PM.

A lot of this economic mess in those days was ascribed to we having an RBI which was considered a slave of the Government. The RBI Governor in those days was expected to toe the line of the Government. Dr. Manmhan sigh who had served earlier as the RBI Governor too understood the importance of an autonomus central bank in managing the moetary policy effectively. This was ofcourse vindicated by the largely autonomous central banks of almost all developed nations at the time (which remains largely true till date).

As a result some of the key reforms focussed on a more autonomous and stronger RBI. Fiscal Responsibility Bill was passed that committed to a maximum limit of monetisation of fiscal deficit. Monetary policy was largely left to the RBI governor and it was decided that beyond the limit of monetisation Govt. will finance its fiscal deficit through Market operations. All these helped ensure debate on key areas of reforms and policy. Healthy disagreements between the FM and the RBI Governors have often resulted in rethinking and reevaluating of options. Many believe with some strong basis that India managed to cruise through the 2009-10 Global Financial meltdown triggered by the sub-prime crisis in the US, quite admirably largely due to prudent policies on the part of the RBI (and also due to fairly expert management by the FM/PM/planning Commision head of the fiscal economy).

So what is alarming about the draft Indian Financial Policy issued by the Finance Ministry? It seems to be undoing this body of work done over close to three decades. The draft suggests formation of a "Monetary Policy Committee" that would decide key rates of the Monetary Policies. What is interesting, is that out of seven members in the committee four are proposed to be those appointed by the Central Government and only two to be appointed by the RBI. This effectively means that the RBI Governor has effectively lost control on decisions related to key monetary policy parameter. An earlier draft allowed for a veto with the RBI Governor in case he/she disagreed with the commitee's decision - this draft does not allow even that safeguard against an overzealous FM.

Further, The revised IFC is also silent on the setting up of a Debt Agency Advisory Council that was proposed in the earlier draft to advise the Public Debt Management Agency. The revised draft has also toned down the FSAT and removed the provision empowering it to review regulations. This in short means we are not to expect any reforms towards strengthening the monetary/banking system of the country anytime soon.

Now I am not saying that we are anywhere near the economic mess of 1991 and yet it would not take more than a decade at today's pace to be there - if we do  not learn from our past mistakes. Whatever be your criticism of the Manmohan Singh government - one credit he must get. His government created strong institutions that were allowed to work autonomously - and each one of them helped/is helping transform the sector. Eg. SEBI, TRAI, IRDA, UID etc. Limiting their autonomy would be counter productive in the medium term.

Most well meaning Indians should express view on such an important piece of legislation that threatens to take us back tens of years on a piece of reform that has actually worked. In fact we need a Government that that takes these reforms further by expediting the formation of Debt Management Agency which is a crying need of PSU banks that are already reeling under the increased levels of NPAs. The Government can do so much to ensure a strong India and facilitate Economic recoery - taking away institutional autonoy from key functions is the last thing they should target. Is someone listening.

$1B SBI Loan - Benefit of Doubt to Modiji

Lot of criticism has erupted as Adani Mining the Australian Subsidiary of Adani Enterprisesigned an MOU with SBI for a loan upto $1 Billion.  As I browsed through the morning papers this is the sense I could make out. Those of you not interested in technical fact based posts may avoid reading this one. :-)

First, let's collect some facts
1. Debt Position
As on Sep 30, 2014, the long term debt of the company : Rs 55,364.94 crore. 
The short term debt : Rs 17,267.43 crore. 
Hence, the total debt : Rs 72,632.37 crore.

The total debt of the company has shot up by Rs 7653.33 crore in a last six months.

2. Loan Repayment Ability
The total operating profit over the last four quarters : Rs 8999.92 crore. 
The interest paid on its debt in the last four quarters : 5,733.77 crore. 
This means an interest coverage ratio of around 1.57
However, the Interest Coverage is deteriorating over the last four qrtrs.  at 2.67 in march, at 1.58, in June 1.12 in Sep 2014.

Another unconfirmed figure that is doing the round in discussion is that the total asset value of adani enterprises is $72 B. (please note I could not confirm this figure - however this does not look like impossible).
So, the company does look like an over leveraged one even if on a solid asset base.
And at the same time the company does not like it is going down the drain. Banks offer loans to much worse balance sheets - not always because there are paybacks - but also because thats what they are supposed to do - take calculated risks.

3. Viability
Globally, coal prices have been on a downtrend in the last three years and are at the lowest levels since 2009. Prices of steam coal, a slightly lower grade that is used in power generation, have halved since 2011 to $62 per tonne now. The prices have fallen 30% and are expected to remain low for a few years according to many leading analysts.

In fact, Much bigger coal rivals, like BHP Billiton and Glencore, have also shelved coal developments in Queensland at a time when a third of Australia's coal output is making losses.
This does raise a question mark on viability of the project too.
A business standard article neatly sums up the risks in the project here.

How risky is it?
Depending on which side of the fence are you on, these figures may look as a risky bet to offer loan to - or it may appear to be an acceptable risk.

Now I am no financial wizard to opine authentically on the above numbers and yet to my sense - a company that is into projects like mining which are long term projects at least at this stage it does not look so dangerously risky. Specially because the company seems to be backed by the Govt. of the day.

What does SBI have to say on this?
Read this article - "SBI defends loan to Adani"
well as always - a misleading headline it is. There is no defence built by SBI chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya, instead she explained the current position on the MOU. A better story to read is in The Economic Times - here 

Lets summarise the main points 
1. At present the bank has only entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the group. 

2. It will do "proper due diligence" before sanctioning the $1-billion (about Rs 6,000 crore) loan to Adani Mining  

3. If the board approves the loan, SBI's net exposure would be to the tune of $200 million, as there will be some repayments also from the company. 

 So, she makes it sound as if the Loan can still be cancelled. Technically true. But I guess its a forgone conclusion when announced in this manner. One can be easily forgiven to conclude that what SBI was doing by signing the MOU at the time when Adani was in Australia along with the PM, was that it was giving positive signals to authorities in Australia. It would be naive to believe that the PMO does not have a hand in it.

And yet there are three things to note

One, there is nothing wrong in a Bank signing an MOU subject to due diligence - even if just to help improve the client's chance to clinch a deal - if it believes that will reduce the risk in the project. In fact Banks are supposed to support ventures which in their view have fair degree of chance to succeed. (That they should do so for small entrepreneurs as well is another story - another post - another time)

Two, the Bank has let the deal be open to closer scrutiny by the media as well. So the Bank's intention should be viewed with less scepticism.

Third, the net exposure has to increase by much lesser (200 million) according to SBI chair person. If so, this may be a deft step in managing NPAs by getting the group to repay a large portion of earlier loan and starting a fresh credit line with fresh safeguards.

The Political Angle

So we inexplicably reach that aspect which is the biggest concern. The politics behind this loan. It is an open secret that Adani is a close connect of Modiji. Most ardent supporters of Modiji will also not disagree that, the media jamboree that Modiji has been able to generate and sustain has been possible because of the open flood of resource made available by the likes of Adani. So one may be easily forgiven to conclude that this is payback time.

Hence the cries of crony capitalism, back door kick backs etc. How do we make sense in this clutter? Most supporters like a asst. prof at the respected XLRI or a respected economist/author in Mumbai and many others have had less concrete things to say. Some glimpses
1. This is not yet sactioned loan. It is just an MOU.
weak retort this is. An intent to offer the loan is anyway good enough. Is SBI expected to decline now.

2. SBI has offered such loans earlier too and to  likes of Tatas, Birlas and Jindals
Again very Bhakt like response. Does the above truth make this loan fine. The intent of the current Government was to clean the UPA mess. If they hide behind the logic "they also did it" then where is the change. 
A mere point of distinction (equally bad an argument though) is that at least Tatas & Birlas weren't such all out supporters of UPA/Congress as Adani has been to Modiji.

3. the cries of crony capitalism rest on a form of guilt by association.
Correct, but then do you wish us to bring concrete evidence admissible in the court. Comeon - the UPA/Congress also has maintained all the time that they had no hand - did the bhakts listen then. The facts are too good to ignore. Adani's close links to Modiji, He present in australia along with the PM, deal inked in Australia, MOU signed in India. Come on too naive to accept that these are "mutually exclusive independent" events just to borrow a phrase from mathematical probability.

If at all Bhakts want these criticism to be wished away they should ask Modiji to clearly state that his Media circus is not funded by the likes of Adaniji. Till he does that, the Guilt by association, though not legally tenable, is very compelling otherwise.

4. The PM has a role in forwarding Indian Interest - even if it   benefits a few individuals and companies.
By far the strongest argument in favour of Modiji. 
Well historically, PMs and Presidents of countries have been instrumental in bringing about deals and projects which shall in the long run lead to development. One can argue whether this project is one such. But the fact is Energy security is a Big issue for our country. Our country is a net importer of Coal and is expected to remain so for years. So if such deals are happening - even with little help from the PM - its fine.

Having said that - there is one difference. The imagery is compelling. As I explained earlier, the guilt by association logic strongly suggests that the tax payers money has been put to risk for funding the media exercise to bolster Modiji's image.

Further, Earlier PMs and Presidents took a host of industrialists on board to benefit from such interactions and initiatives of the Govt. This one looks pretty biased.

5. The Govt. of Queensland also has promised financial support to the Project
True and thats more dangerous. First the Govt. of Queensland has committed an undisclosed amount. Going by the inclination for hyperbole now a days - the real figure could be the proverbial 20% (as it turns out in most cases attached to modiji :-) ) 
Further, what this means is that in case of default the recovery cases will have two parties the Queensland Govt. and the SBI. The case would most probably be tried in an Australian court. The chances of SBI recovering its loan are anybody's guess under the circumstances.

However, my criticism is also technical. The australian Govt. committing its bit certainly leads more credibility to the project.

On the other hand Congress and others opposed to Modiji call this the worst case of crony capitalism. BJP says they don't have a hand in this loan. 

Here is what I think - Modiji/BJP have been criticising crony capitalism for last decade but once in power they look simply a saffron copy of the earlier dispensation.
On the other hand - Congress who raises the bogey of crony capitalism now has probably been one of the worst offenders on the issue.

So where does this all leave the General Public - US.
Bhakts should continue to be dismayed as the drama unfolds and they realise that Modiji is just like many other politicians, although he is a more active and visible PM on the world scene.

In this case however we should give the benefit of doubt to Modiji. If as a country we installed him as a PM to change the way things are. His intentions will have to be trusted for some time. Yes, he seems to have been biased and yet every PM will require his trusted aides to bring about change.

There is a very thin line between quick and decisive decision making (what Modi stands for) and passing favours to close aides, friends and relatives (what long bureaucratic decision makings tends to avoid). Its a tight rope walk and the jury on Modiji is still out. This is just the start of the Firework. My suggestion is to hold the broadside till more details of the deal/loan/political connect emerges. 

CAT changes colours yet again - should you be worried

More than a decade and a half ago when we used to prepare for CAT we used to practice on a large variety of mock patterns because every one with some know how will say one thing without fail - expect surprises from CAT. That was then - today life has transformed in more ways than one can imagine - including the fact that the CAT throws surprises three months in advance.

The structure of CAT has undergone some important changes as announced by the IIMs yesterday. So I decided to write a post on understanding those changes, how they impact preparation & strategies of a sincere CAT aspirant.

Change 1

The CAT this year will happen on just two days (16^th Nov. and 22^nd Nov.) unlike a 20-25 day span in the last two years.

Impact

if you are a student you must smile at this development. This means that you have almost a month more to prepare.

Second reason to smile is that conduction of test in just four slots (two on each day) means the test can now be more or less of same mix and toughness levels in all the slots. Last year many students felt that they were unfairly treated because of varying toughness levels and mix of questions across the slots followed by an esoteric standardization process that few understood and most doubted because of some pretty weird results. It is to be expected that a more standardized test would automatically make the test a fairer one.

Change 2

Duration of the examination has been increased to 170 minutes from the existing limit of 140 minutes.

Change 3

The questions in each section Quantitative Ability & Data Interpretation, Verbal Ability & Logical Reasoning have been increased to 50 in each section from the existing 30 questions.

Change 4

Candidates have the flexibility for devoting more or less time to each section according to their ability and they can switch over from one section to another section during the examination timing.

Impact

The above are by far the most important changes made to CAT from student’s perspective.

A close to three hours test means it’s going to get more exhausting. Improve on your stamina to sit for long hours in front of a computer screen and concentrate. For those of you who get bored reading just one page of this post – this means extra hours of study every day in a single sitting. J

An increase of 66.66 percent (100 from 60 earlier) in number of questions and a disproportionate 21.5 percent increase in time means that you will have less time available per question than was available in the earlier format. So it is time to try and increase your speed of doing questions. This also means that eliminating options, working backwards or keen observations will get some advantage. 

Another possibility is that the general level of test could moderate a bit. If this happens it is good news for students especially those from the non-math background as one expects the higher mathematics portion to tone down a bit. This in simple terms means – arithmetic and geometry could again be in favour in the QA section and better approximation at DI can be very fruitful.

Flexibility to decide time distribution between sections is a double edged sword. When used well this could work to a great advantage to the sincere test taker. Because the Test Taking strategy can make a winning difference to one’s score. The flip side of this flexibility is  that  it is tempting to shuffle across the test and hence one could lose valuable time affecting performance adversely. Time for you to revisit your strategy when you attempt the CAT.

There is one more thing. A sixty question test had made accuracy very crucial. Even a couple more errors than normal used to weigh very heavily against a student in the earlier format. This pressure is a bit relaxed because in general the number of attempts will have to increase for a better score. What this means is that the probability of a bright student missing the bus because of a couple of incidental unforced errors has reduced. This is again good for all sincere CAT aspirants.

Change 5

The candidates have no option to prefer the dates. The dates will be allotted by CAT Centre 2014 on random basis.

Impact

While this has no direct impact on students. Some gyani had earlier theorized that appearing in CAT on certain days is more advantageous than on days like Sundays when many with work experience appear in the CAT. While the above was any way baseless – now there is absolutely no basis whatever for such unscientific assertions as the allotment of slots and days will be random.

Change 6

The purchase of offline Vouchers has been discontinued from this year and the candidates have to make the payment of Registration fee through online modes only by Credit Card, Debit Card or through Net Banking.

Impact

Once again no big impact here and ofcourse it has no academic relevance – except that many students may find it a bit difficult to arrange for a credit/debit card or net banking facility.

One thing has to be said however, since the time CAT has turned into a Computer Based Test (CBT) it is once again turning to be an elitiest test. it is an empirical truth that since the test became a CBT the greatest percentage drop in number of CAT takers have been in the states of MP, CG, Rajasthan where the Internet and Computers has not yet become a way of life for a majority. Now only online payment is one more step in alienating the sub urban rural masses of this country.

CAT has had this character of changing colours almost every two/three years. So to us watching it for last 20 years this is not surprising. All in all the changes in this year seem to be addressing some anomalies that have crept in the CAT process over the last few years. It is overall good news for most sincere CAT seekers. It is time for CAT aspirants to avoid the rumour mills that invariably start with such changes and to keep focus because like most changes in CAT this one also can be summed up in the phrase "old wine in new bottle"

It's actually "Competence v/s Loyalty"

Recently there has been quite a bit of debate on the issue of Smriti Irani becoming the HRD minister of India and it was amusing to see that people are concerned about the fact that she has barely completed her schooling.

Too much focus on her qualification is preventing a more crucial discussion that of whether competence should be preferred over loyalty by leaders. 

There is universal agreement on the fact that qualification and wisdom/intelligence are two separate issues and that they surely are not positively correlated. In simple terms a holder of multiple degrees could be equally dumb/incompetent as an illiterate person and ma
often illiterate people can be very wise and intelligent too. So one does not mind Smriti being tried as a minister even if her educational qualification does not match up to the task. Her sincerity needs to be watched before brushing her off in the seat of the HRD minister.

Lets shift focus to the central theme of this post - A more important question to ask is - Would Mrs. Sushma Swaraj have become a minister had she lost election in the same way as Smriti Irani and Arun Jaitley did. Here then lies the irony of the situation. Lets ask ourselves, What is more important in making a choice of team members - loyalty or competence. 


Lets start with a couple of examples - a very successful midsize software company the founder-CEO of which stays in the USA and manages business development leaves the operations and administration of his entire company in the hands of a rather mediocre Engineer who has been working with him since last 20 years and started as just an administration executive because he was unable to get a better job after his graduation. Over the years - the CEO found him to be a man he could trust with company information and also his stability was not under doubt unlike many other more competent people.

Another - a very influential and large newspaper  from one region starts its edition in another region pitching itself against the regional leader in the industry. But whom does it give the administrative control of the entire operations - to a rather old hand who has little understanding of either marketing or journalism - but the owner director of the company has full trust in his allegiance to himself. While the management appoints rather competent people in the editorial and marketing teams - they all report to the management through this rather mediocre COO.

I am sure you also know many such leaders/organisations where we wonder - why a rather mediocre and sometimes outright incompetent person holds a key responsibility. The only explanation is unflinching loyalty to the leader.

Back to the Modi Sarkar, There is validity in the argument that there are probably more competent people in BJP itself for the specific post of the HRD minister (which is true of  few others ministers as well notably Ram Vilas Paswan, Uma Bharti, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, Dr. Harshwardhan etc). And some people may feel surprised that a leader, who everyone hopes will change the face of India by hopefully delivering prosperity for all Indians, must depend on less competent people as his team to deliver. Yet, there is another side to the coin as it invariably always is the case.

Look around yourself. Most leaders (and not necessarily - political leaders alone) need a core team that is loyal to the leader sometimes to an extent that defies logic. These team members hold key responsibilities that may be far beyond their competence. The leader can easily afford better, more efficient people. And yet, people who are invariably loyal to the leader are preferred - whatever be their competence. The leader at times of crisis depends on them. They are ready to sacrifice themselves for his cause. Of course they get rewarded when the going gets good. Mr. Amit Shah or Anandi Ben Patel and now Smriti Irani are good examples of such followers of Modi (though mr. shah should in all fairness be considered highly competent for the jobs Modi gave him). 

However - A leader can not do without competent people - how else would he/she deliver. The problem with a competent team often is that they become competitive as well. Individual intelligence does not let them easily accept collective wisdom. Each individual has strong opinions as well as strong conviction on one's own opinion and they would not balk down from openly disagreeing with the leader creating difficult situations for the leader. They sometimes are lured by the outsiders and they often switch sides because of either better growth prospects or by the promise of more authority/autonomy or because of that most dreaded reason, their leader facing tough times,even decline.

My experience, admittedly limited though, says there is a pattern. A good competent team led by an able motivating leader creates success - aim for the sky - Either differences between core team occurs or the they face tough times. Either ways the team gradually scatters away as individuals move away and differences become strong. The leader starts according premium to loyalty - competence is short changed - the team is into a downward spiral thereon.

The above sounds like the congress over the last few decades. Some might even like to say that AAP is a microcosm of the same pattern. Infosys, post Narayanmurthi and Nandan Nilkeni is showing some early signs of the same pattern. 

Mind you, I am not suggesting that this eventually will lead into degeneration or failure of the leader - on the contrary there are many examples of leaders who have remained successful despite their single minded preference to the loyal over the competent. The two examples of a software company and of the newspaper are cases. another great example is our own Birla group.

Of course for a leader to be consistently at the top - he/she needs a competent team as well as their unflinching loyalty for the leader. Such a leader is invincible. To some extent, Modi has been an example of this. ICICI's ex-chief Kamath is another such example who built a formidable team of cutting edge professionals who stuck with them till the very last of his days at the ICICI. 

But in the recent history, the only example of a leader who created a team of strong individual leaders and let them independently lead the group to great heights, has been J R D Tata. Under his leadership the Tata Group produced some of the all time best leaders (Sumant Molgaonkar, Nani Palkhiwala, ironically a modi too - Russi Modi) all of whom were absolutely competent and strong individuals in their own right - sometimes to the extent that they would differ in opinions with their leader too. 

There is no question that Modi has thrived on the loyalty of his team and there is no doubt that this cabinet is a stamp of approval for his loyalists. Posterity will judge whether Modi's  cabinet was a team of competent people too. If Modi finally turns out to be the leader that he has been painted into - the team better turns out to be competent. Only time will tell what type will Modi turn out to be. What do you think?

Has the India on social media gone Berserk?

What has been the most visible side effect of the unprecedented Modi wave that gave a Majority Govt. to India after a long time. Am I talking about the communal/secular debate? No. Am I talking about the complete lack of opposition in the parliament? No. No it is not even about the almost washout of Congress.

In fact - this is NOT yet another political analysis of the Modi wave and aftermath. So calm down. I am talking about almost a mad rush to be present and be heard on the three most active social media circuits - the facebook, the twitter and the whatsapp.

Yes, its almost mad - or am I being modest here. Take a few examples

A publicity hungry KRK - posts that he is already going to Pakistan because Modi has become the PM of the country and the entire generation of super heroes start spewing venom on poor SRK; many even brand him a traitor and anti national.

Since the time Modi won the election comprehensively - his supporters are digging anyone and everyone who might have expressed even the slightest disagreement with Modi in recent past - to score brownie points. To my amusement, I too received a " akash u know that i have strongly support mature person that is certified by whole country but immature people like pappu & ak 49 is badly rejected by whole nation, so 'always sit on right horse '"  from an old college friend.

Whatsapp is full of jokes mostly targetting Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi and Dr. Manmohan Singh that vary from seriously funny and humourous to outrightly humiliating and crass.

You are sadly mistaken, if you think I am pained just because I am an Arvind Kejriwal sympathiser or Dr. Manmohan singh admirer (both of which I am - no luck for RG though). I see another race on the social media - to post something, somehow and in such volumes that people may like you - hate you - but cannot ignore you.

For Eg. how many of your friends on an average are shayars - yeah count. I am sure that number is as small as there are in my friend list - but why do I receive at least 20 odd shers everyday and almost every sher comes to me from 10 different friends/groups. Some of these shayaris are plainly "Bakwas" Neither are they funny - nor are they deep. But then so what.

I generally delete at least 70-80 images everyday from my phone simply wishing Good morning - add an equal number of Good night images. First people started sending images that wished me happy sundays - then some of them to score an advance win started sending an image wishing me Happy weekends. I thought the height is when my whatsapp group started informing me how bad a Monday is - but no someone just wished me a Happy Tuesday (and its not a text - its an image). Tuesday?? Really.

On mother's day - half of India in the social media turned emotional. Some smarter ones took a jibe at all these people sending overtly emotional poems, prose and essays on "माँ "

Do you get posts that asks you to click Like on the FB or to simply forward on the watsapp circuit because its new/latest.

And yes Hyperbole is the new cool. So either Modi is a superman who will change everything for good or he is a communal murderer anti-nationalist. Either Rahul Gandhi is the hero of the Congress or he is our version of George Bush. Either Arvind Kejriwal is a revolution that will change the face of the politics in this country or he is a "Bhagoda", "Dharna Ready", "Power Hungry" trumpet blowing his own whistle so loud that he fell flat by getting just 4 seats in the Lok Sabha seat as was predicted a few centuries ago by none other than Nostredumus. And I am sure you all received the Gadkari video talking tough against Pakistan as the proof that in a few days Modi would wrench Kashmir out of Pakistan and that they would be begging of Modi to leave Karachi on its own destiny. :-)

Also the social media is a tool to vent one's frustration in the weirdest possible ways. One of my friend from the IIM days sent me a link to a blog post which weaved the conspiracy theory that RG is a womaniser, drug addict who was in Myanmar making merry when he skipped the farewell get together of Dr. MMS.
Anoher one suggested that now that we have a strong Modi sarkar - the western press has ganged up to ensure that negative image of Modi is stressed which may eventually lead to his assassination (really ???###).

Whats going on? Are we such a repressed society that social media is used to vent all kinds of anger, frustration or simply for targetted leg pulling. The lines of distinction between humourous and slapstick, between free speech and defamation, between fact and opinions, between objective and biases are quickly forgotten and it becomes a game of numbers - majority rules. Volume will make an impact. Gossip is the new truth. Rumours are the new fact.

In fact if you enjoyed reading the last para - welcome to the new gen where the sensational sells. The good old maturity is shortchanged - its the world wide web of showoffs and attention seekers - welcome to the world of Social Media.