Movie Review - "Super 30"

With movies like "Chillar Party "and "Queen" under his belt (despite a forgettable "shandaar") one held a lot of hope from vikas bahl's foray into a biopic. So I went to watch "Super 30" with a sense of anticipation. Add to that my association with the world of academics and of parallel education - I was personally almost excited about the movie. 

The problem for the director was that everyone knew the story - It is a story about a person alive and kicking in our current society. We know him as someone who devised and executed the concept of "Super 30" - name given to collecting and training 30 potentially sharp students from poor backgrounds for the coveted IITJEE and to get them selected to the august corridors of the IVY league of Indian education. The story is of Anand Kumar who dedicated himself to this cause and despite the seemingly insurmountable odds and resistance from all quarters, succeeds in the mission. 

So, what can the script and the director do to make the movie interesting. I think the director faced the dilemma of whether to make the movie more inspirational or more entertaining. As the director of Chillar Party and Queen - I had expected that he will find this fine balance between the two. I must say that I was a tad disappointed, just a bit disappointed, on that note. And yet he is able to keep the audience engaged for the entire length of a quarter less than three hours - which is quite an achievement. However, to keep this engagement - the director surrenders to loud overacting and melodrama, because otherwise the lack of depth in the story or the many loose ends of the movie would become obvious. 

The movie starts with the story of personal struggles of Anand Kumar who is keenly interested and is very talented in mathematics - but the infinite constraints of he being from a poor family breaks his back completely and he was almost relegated to be a faceless of crores of talented Indians who fail to make a mark. This part is well made and is indeed inspirational. It is also very real and convincing. One could feel the anguish of being a talented student among a crowd of smug, ignorant and unappreciating set of people for whom the most empathy with the guy was to get him a job in the post office. It is disheartening to see such talent go waste.

However, soon a commercial almost trivialised bollywood drama unfolds as his life changes from someone aspiring to become a PhD in mathematics to the best known face in the coaching world of the coveted IIT admission business and then transforms into a idealist out there to fight for struggles of unknown underprivileged kids.

The eternal need to have a heroine and a villain in the story of a Hero makes the movie look like a fictional - less convincing - bollywood commercial film in the second half. I would say Mr. India released wayback in 1987 had portrayed the struggles of a man supporting the kids better without a biopic. So there is a "Mogambo" - the CEO of a large coaching business who does everything on and off the book, most unconvincingly though, to kill the Anand Kumar story. Then there is the "calendar" - the brother of Anand Kumar who is beside him in his thick and thin - nondescript but a stellar support. Oh !! and can I forget "Seema" the heroine of Mr. India trying to bring about some "namak" in an otherwise plain daal-rice story of a struggler. And yes - it was needed that the Army of the "Mogambo" will fight a head-on battle with the hero and eventually lose it to an unexpectedly smart and well equipped set of poor starving kids.

{For the uninitiated Mogambo, Calendar and Seema the reporter are unforgettable characters of an immensely successful shekhar kapur superhit "Mr. India" - the parallels to that movie of Super thirty are uncanny} 

My problem is not, that these stories are fictional - we all know that they are actually true. That Anand Kumar was shot at, almost killed. That when he was in the hospital - he was attacked by a gang of goons - but the flight of fancy that the director took in picturisation of this sequence turns the movie into a rajnikantish manmohan desai flick minus the imaginative fine execution of either manmohan desai or shekhar kapur. While one was expecting a very real and earthly "chillar party" style of handling those sequences by the Director of that immensely likeable  movie.

My problem is also that to turn the protagonist into super hero everyone else is willified and looked down at. So the entire coaching business is education mafia, the entire rich class students and privileged and hence shown as someone grabbing opportunities of the poorer students. That there is no financial or other support to the poorer students of the society that they are almost completely exploited lot. Such caricatures actually increases the distance between the haves and have nots in their psychology. It also builds the perception that only rebellion against such exploitation is the way out for the downtrodden. I think the world around us had changed a lot. 

There are far too many loose ends - a don calling the protagonist from a Bihar jail asking for a cut or closing down his class is simply told on the phone that none is happening and then he does nothing; just vanishes in thin air. The sequence in which the Super thirty competes with the students of Excellence, are defeated and then are saved from closing the venture down was a pathetic attempt to make the heroine relevant. I think that was the weakest part of the script. The English play by the Hindi/bihari speaking students to gain confidence among the elite english speaking student was another unconvincing drag of the sort, while it tried to convey an excellent message actually. Even the attempt to murder the protagonist is stretched and so spills over to look quite unreal. The most unreal part happens to be the climax sequence in which the students of Anand Kumar gangs up to save him from an attack on the hospital. The effort to show that they used the concepts learnt in the classes in dealing with these goons is interesting but unreal.

On the positive side - the academic brilliance of Anand Kumar has been imaginatively captured and picturised. The need for a teacher to go beyond the subject and delve into the psyche of the student and help him/her in areas beyond the subject is well sketched and presented. The unholy nexus between education, politicians and goons is real and palpably presented. The sequence when the kids finally succeeds is very well cultivated and leaves us poignantly happy.

Hrithik Roshan is intense and sincere as always. He played the Anand Kumar rather well. He only looks unconvincing when trying to portray the helplessness of Anand Kumar - like when he sells Papad or when he goes for help to the coaching class CEO. The problem with most Hrithik Roshan movies is that his character dominates the movie so much that most other characters remain underdeveloped. So, despite an almost three hour long movie - most other characters remain distant and obscure for the audience. Mrunal did a fine job of whatever little she was given to do. Virendra Saxena and Pankaj Tripathi both leave a mark in very limited roles that they were allowed. Aditya srivastava through a  fine actor was a victim of underdeveloped character. To keep Anand Kumar as a hero he was sketched as a weak, acute kind of a leader who has little idea of what he was doing and often fails in execution. On the other hand - he is also someone who converted Anand Kumar into a brand. Really !? The group of kids were underwhelmingly developed. The movie tried to paint these kids successes as and only because of Anand Kumar. 

Honestly the background music is a disappointment - nothing really is hummable or memorable. It is at places loud and uncomfortable - specially the Hindi Play song "no no no .............". Even the dialogues could have been far better. That would have lent more power to the movie and were badly missing. Only the one where Anand kumar says "ये अमीर लोग अपने लिए खूब चिकना सड़क बनाए, हमारी राह में ऐसा बड़ा-बड़ा गड्ढ़ा खोद दिए. लेकिन यहीं वो सबसे बड़ी गलती कर दिए. हमको छल्लांग लगाना सिखा दिए." leaves you with some jest. In fact the signature dialogue "आज राजा का बेटा राजा नहीं बनेगा. राजा वहीं बनेगा जो हकदार होगा" repeated many times sounds cliched and devoid of any impact.

So then if you have read this review till now, you will ask me why am I saying it is a good movie to watch - probably because of Hrithik and because it's an entertaining movie. Don't look for too much inspiration - it is there in bits and pieces but you are fairly entertained with loud music, acting and delivery. It's not quite in the class of Milkha Singh or Mary Kom. It tries to be three Idiots but is miles away from it. And yet its a good one time watch. It does bring out the disparity and unfair competition. Don't look for an inspirational biopic - instead look for a superhero who sacrifices himself to create success out of hopeless poodles. Don't look for a commercial pot-boiler on the edge of the seat entertainment - but enjoy the emotional, often loud picturisation of human misery, glory, frustrations, successes and the myriad puzzle called life. Good one time watch. If someone was to watch it a second time - there will be too many flaws obvious.

Budget 2019 - Huge expectations - negative delivery

As the first full-time lady Finance minister of Independent India, N. Sitharaman has a lot to be proud of. For India as a country too this is sort of a milestone - female power busting another historically male dominated domain. 

Having said that, her record either as the Commerce Minister or as the defence minister has been a disaster. So one was disappointed to see her becoming the Finance Minister at a very important juncture for the Indian Economy. She is one more in the series of appointments under the Modi government who is in her position because of an unflinching loyalty to the king.

Be it what it may, did she do something to change my perception of her in the Full Budget presented on 5th July 2019 (if we still think that Piyush Goyal presented just a vote on account in Feb, that is) Let's do some detailed analysis. 

Background
One sympathises with Nirmalaji because she inherited an economy that is largely in a mess and she cannot now blame the previous Government too (well magic !? the previous government was also her own - times change don't they). 

Arun Jaitley will probably go in the annuls (at least that's my opinion of him as the FM) as a Finance Minister adept at managing media narratives but who did little to reform or restructure the Indian economy in its most crucial decade and as someone who lied his way through his entire tenure - on data (Fiscal Deficit/Disinvestment for eg), on narratives (demo for cashlessness for eg) too. He missed on an opportunity to radically restructure/reform the economy.

So what does Nirmala Sitharaman inherit from him as an economyAn NPA mess in the Banking Sector
A Banking system that is burdened with an NPA (Non-Performing Assets) mess. According to the MOF data the gross NPA more than tripled from below 3 lakh crores to more than 9 lakh crores.  Yes, these NPAs are a legacy of the UPA era. However, Jaitley failed to address the mess and mitigate the crisis despite pumping in record amount of money in the financial system. Five years down the line the NPA balloon is more inflated. This despite the fact that there has been record recovery of Loans due to pressures built by the IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy code) act and also despite the fact that the Government has been pumping money (Remember the Indrdhanush scheme of Jaitley that was supposed to solve the NPA issue) that is growing in every budget.

A shadow banking crisis 
The non banking Financial Institutions (NBFC), often called the shadow banks as they operate approximately like a bank but without the strong RBI regulations unlike banks, are undergoing a crisis of their own - which is still unfolding. The default on bond repayments by ILFS  that alone holds more than 91,000 crores of debt has raised alarms as more than 1 Lakh crores of CP are coming up for redemption in the next three months. There is severe liquidity crunch. Read details here.

A Data Credibility Crisis

For many years now reams of paper have been written questioning the new GDP series data that is showing robust growth in the GDP while most other economic indicators like export, consumption, savings and jobs have been showing a decline. In fact on many occasions the Government stopped publication of data, or delayed release of reports or simply hid the data behind bureaucratic walls to keep the narrative positive. However now there is increased discussion on the issue.

There was a celebrated leakage of unemployment report from the NSSO that showed unemployment at an all time high which NITI aayog had termed as unofficial. However now the data is official and the unemployment rate indeed is at a 45 year high. 

The former chief economic advisor to the Modi Government has written a research paper that claims that the Indian GDP growth rate may have been overestimated by as much as 2.5% and so claims that the GDP growth rate may actually have been between 3.5% to 5.% and not close to 7% as estimated. While this has been disputed - no cogent analytical defense has been put to counter this by the Government. However even the Economic survey has accepted a slightly downward revision of GDP estimates.

Economy slowing down

After initial state of denial the Government has now accepted that the economy is indeed slowing down. The Quarterly GDP growth rate in the last two quarters of 2018-19 were 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. 

Not necessarily Fiscally "prudent"
One of the credits that Jaitley has always given to himself is that under his stewardship the fiscal deficit has been under control and has largely kept to the roadmap decided upon in the last Chidambaram Budget. On paper this looks like true too. The government estimates 3.4% fiscal deficit as against a target of 3.3%. This does not look bad at all - but is it possible??

Specially because the Government revenues from almost all sources fell below its target (budgeted revenues). This is true even on account of direct taxes which otherwise have risen robustly. So much so that the Government fell short of budgeted revenues of close to 1.5 Trillion rs. - yes thats 1.5 Lakh Crores. So how did government manage the fiscal deficit figure by cutting spends in the last quarter, delaying payments in the last month of the year and hence the payment was made after April and managing subsidies levels by keeping them on off balance sheet items for example loans taken by FCI to pay for those subsidies which will have to be paid by the Government in the next financial year but that helped them keep the value away from govt balance sheet for the current financial year. Read a more detailed account of this jugglery here. 

The government also showed better collection on the disinvestment front but even that was jugglery because it generated money by cross disinvestment (meaning one PSU buying another). This generates money for the govt but does not address the basic problem of loss making PSUs eating way government resources. Also the new MPC with the last dissenter Viral Acharya having resigned is more amenable to offer higher dividends to the govt to fill the gap. But as you may have understood none of these is a structural improvement in the management of the economy.

The nut and shell of the above mumbo-jumbo is that the real fiscal deficit is much higher and that the government show of fiscal prudence is largely window dressing.

Stagnant/declining exports

The exports sector has been languishing for more than half a decade now. There has been no economy in the history that has grown at 8+ percent without a robust export scenario. This is one area where the Government also has not tried to hide data (as if they could have) but at the same time has done precious little to boost it up. One of the reasons I find Sitharaman a wrong person for the FM' job is her failure to do anything on this front as the commerce minister. Our export to GDP ratio needs to improve if we are serious about 8+% growth.

Consumption slowdown is real and large

In March 2019, sales of cars, motorcycles, scooters, commercial vehicles (CVs) and tractors fell in comparison to March 2018. They fell by 6.87%, 14.27%, 25.19%, 4.71% and 14.97%, respectively. Data over the last five years (between April 2014 and March 2019) shows this is only the second time when growth of all five economic indicators has fallen during the course of a month. Before March, the only other time this had happened was in February 2019, when sales of cars, motorcycles, scooters, CVs and tractors dropped by 4.33%, 0.58%, 12.14%, 8.77% and 0.52%, respectively. (Data : Mint). The economic survey now accepts this severity in slowdown.

Private Investment stagnant/declining 

One real headache have been lack of enthusiasm among corporate to bring about robust investment in private businesses. This despite push to Make in India, Improved ease of doing business, and focus on startup india. Probably this is an indication of lack of confidence in the Indian economy for now. This may also be because of after-shock of demonetisation and a patchy implementation of the GST regime. Fresh investment in the economy has plunged to a 15 year low. 

Household Saving declining

A robust private investment requires availability of fund in the economy to invest. Out of many indicators that point to availability of funds to invest is the savings rate of the economy. The historically high domestic saving rate in India has been steadily declining and that should worry policy makers because it is an indication of investments that can happen in the future of the economy.

Is there something positive in the scenario ??

Obviously yes, there are a few - 

For one our fiscal deficit may not be as rosy as Government makes it look but it isn't something to be worried too. A more honest government would have accepted that there are headwinds and so to stimulate growth certain substantial slippages in fiscal prudence has been allowed to happen. 

Second, despite low exports the Forex reserve situation is not just comfortable but has been further growing too. So we are nowhere near the 1999 situation. This has been possible because of steady FDI inflows in the economy. We have been helped on this account because of Global economic slowdown followed by Quantitative Easing in the US and the Europe, is my guess.

Third positive is that inflation is well under control - this has largely been because of strong monetary policy control under RRR followed by urjit. The MPC  without viral may not be so hawk eyed anymore. 

The other positive is that oil prices remain moderate and hence government is able to generate a bounty of sorts in taxes on petrol/diesel. The only six months when the crude had started climbing in 2018 is when modiji for the first time started to appear a weak PM. So in that sense modi government has been very very lucky. 

Final positive is that the infrastructure spending under modi 1.0 is real and widespread. One can expect it to kick in sooner or later. FM must be badly hoping that it kickstarts the consumption.

I can go on and on (for example I did not mention agriculture distress because it is so much talked about) but I think you get a drift of the economic mess that Jaitley left us with. Is this time running out - only time will tell. 

But one thing I can say for sure. A supposedly economically right wing government with brutal majority in the house should now not be incremental about economic reforms - otherwise our demographic dividend, the economic sweet spot that we have been at for almost a decade now, and the real opportunity to grow and become a world power will truly be missed. My fear is that Sitharaman is not the person to trust with such a humongous task and I will be happy if proven wrong. But at least now she cannot hide behind the names of Nehru, Gandhi and Manmohan Singh for her woes.

What does budget deliver 
Disappointment in nutshell. The budget actually cements the perception that N Sitharaman is an overrated minister - she hasn't performed in any capacity and that there is no expectations from her as the FM as well

The budget actually simply continues the trend of overestimating revenues - aready the Government has fallen short of revenues in all front but the budget estimates a 20% jump in collections over the last year's unmet targets by a huge gap I showed above how economy seems to be sloeing down everywhere - this 20% jump is almost an impossibility.

To generate these impossible figures - all kind of bad economic ideas are back
1 The cess on FPIs is a retrograde measure - will only lead to volatile and negative sentiments on the stock market.
2. The extra tax on super rich is a walk back to years when high effective tax rates led to wide tax evasion and flight of capital to tax heavens. In fact it is not even clear how the additional will help because it cannot be substantial amount even.
3. Criminal charges and punitive action on failing to utilise the CSR fund mandated by law is out of dictators book. Government departments routinely miss utilising funds that they get towards development expenditure - by this logic all of them should be prosecuted under criminal laws. This is insane - criminalising a civil offence - in fact to me this is not even an offence
4 Government borrowing from International markets is a very very bad idea. Someone should make the FM read the history of east asian economies their boom based on foreign borrowings and then their overnight meltdown. In India where governments of all hues and cries have been irresponsible and opaque about the quality of their spending - borrowing overseas is sure recipe for disaster.
5. Government finally seems to be waking up to the enormity of the NPA mess and so has allocated lion's share to recapitalising of PSU banks. However required this step is - it means the government will have further less to spend on developmental expenses.

Very bad budget overall.

All in all the budget fails to understand the mess

Movie Review - "Article 15"

Anubhav sinha had delivered a very impressive "mulk" last year. (My review here) and so I was looking forward to "Article 15" with much anticipation. Unlike the mulk experience - this time around, one knew the theme of the movie. Also now one was entering the movie hall with more expectations from the director. So it was difficult to be surprised. 

So as I walked out of the theatre, I feel that Anubhav Sinha has delivered another well crafted movie on a very sensitive, if not controversial, subject. He confronts us again with difficult questions and helps us visit our and society's prejudices in a dignified, balanced manner. Based on the Badaun Gang rape murder case deep in the UP heartland the movie is a difficult and disturbing watch right from the word go.

A young educated urbane elite IPS officer is transferred to a typical UP village post where he is confronted with a case of three missing teenage girls, a prejudiced, rotten and broken policing & administrative system and caste discrimination so deep rooted that it is almost a culture accepted by both the discriminator and the discriminated. The story is a meandering, moving tale of this officer's experience of negotiating through this case coming to terms with the "in the face" realities of life in the hinterland so removed from the liberal - mostly just environments we live in. One could call it a crime thriller but it is actually a social comment more than a who done it mystery.

A few sequences, hopefully, will haunt the guilty conscious of audience for some time - like the two hapless girls in a bus, or the image of them hanging from a tree or when the third girl is eventually found or a sweeper cleaning a gutter are images that should be remembered as scars on our society at large. As we draw close to the end we start feeling as hopeless as the lady doctor in the

Government hospital, or the witnesses of the crime who are part of the system, or finally the lone fighter protagonist in the movie.

The movie remains focussed on the story and the theme throughout never taking a break to relax or divert - and to the credit of the director - despite this razor sharp focus the audience remain engaged in this difficult to narrate story. The director takes no help from song, dance or special effect sequences. There were so many instances when the director could have lost his way and could have made the movie a commercial pot boiler but thankfully that does not happen. He directed the movie with someone who wanted to make a powerful statement. The only regret will be the statement could have been delivered more powerfully but for the choice of Ayushman for the protagonist role.

I think the biggest weakness of the movie is Ayushman Khurana - a more powerful actor in this role would have made this movie much much higher on impact. Ayushman is sincere, works hard on the role but I think he simply isn't a great actor. He is more suitable to breezy, chocolaty roles. He is impressive in "Article 15" but "Mulk" was more powerful simply because its cast was better chosen. 

"Article 15", I think carried itself on the shoulders of Sayani gupta, Kumud Mishra and Manoj Pawha. In fact Manoj pawha is yet another example of how some really great talent is wasted in the Bollywood in frivolous routine roles. He spurns another super performance in his understated and non-descript role quite like he did in Mulk. Isha Talwar did not have a role and one wonders why she did the movie - probably because it was offered to her. Rest of the cast had little to register their presence as this was a Hero's movie.

The director is ably supported by the right mix of background music, good cinematography and a powerful script laced with crisp dialogues. All in all a very good movie yet again by Anubhav Sinha - he looks like someone who is all set to write off his forgettable past with uninspiring initial movies. The strongest positive of "article 15" is that it is not a super hero movie - the protagonist is a real police officer limited by constraints and needs help. He is no rajanikant who magically sets things right. While the movie ends on a positive note - one feels that was the only fictional part of the story.

My recommendation for a good watch - do add to your list - just don't go when you are in the mood for a light hearted, breezy flick. Instead, expect a engrossing, mind stirring - real tale of the contradictions in the Indian life. 

Oh !! And before I forget there is a really good rap at the end - do watch it to release some of the tense knots that you may have developed watching a disturbing but well crafted story. Enjoy !!