Recently I suggested to a friend that I am considering using the NOTA (None of the above) button this election. His reaction surprised me - he went into a monologue of how NOTA is like wasting your vote etc. I will not bore you with the details as you must have heard of how using the NOTA option is a total waste of your franchise etc. However that interaction got me thinking and I concluded that most people opposing NOTA option in our election process either lack clear thinking or are plainly being politically biased. Here is what I think
First let's get our facts right
NOTA currently does not have any electoral value. It means that even if NOTA gets majority vote a real candidate contesting with the next highest number of votes will be declared elected. In the EVM world of elections - this is an option equivalent to casting a paper vote without stamping any of the choices.
So then, why am I even discussing NOTA as an option.
NOTA is a message from the voter to all Parties
Think of NOTA as a message to all parties that we are unhappy with the choice of candidates offered by them in our constituency. Think of it as a pressure group asking political parties to do more due diligence in choosing and offering us with a candidate with better merit.
It also is a signal that we as electorate will not be satisfied with choosing the better of many bad candidates offered to us. It is a message that we are now more ambitious, more demanding and more imaginative in our expectations.
When NOTA starts attracting more number of votes it can result into one or more of the following many possibilities
(a) It can make the political parties sit and do the arithmetic as to how these votes can affect their chances of win/lose. Obviously that will result into they applying their minds better to choosing better quality candidates.
(b) It can encourage meritorious candidates who wish to make a difference by creating an impact in public life but are overwhelmed by the need to be a part of the decapitated system, structure and processes of mainstream political parties.
(c) On a more idealistic note - it can result into many other smaller parties to erupt from nowhere in search of satisfying these dissatisfied voters.
(d) It may make our policy makers sit up and define a political process that may run into many stages so that a candidate is actually chosen by real majority (that is he/she must defeat NOTA as option as well)
(e) At the least it should make our political parties involve the local public more in choice of candidates.
(f) It may also signal an end to elections being referendum on a person/party like a presidential elections and it may shift the focus to local issues - which should happen in a truly federal democracy.
Difference between indifferent and disappointed citizen
A back of the paper calculation will tell us that between 30 to 50% of electorate does not vote currently. There are primarily three categories of people who do not vote -
One, those who do not yet know their right to vote, do not yet understand their duty to vote and do not realise the power of their vote.
Two, those who are disappointed by our democratic choices offered and hence do not go to the polling booths
Three, indifferent people who don't care.
Most of you would agree that the first category is declining steadily as India becomes more and more politically aware and vocal country. And that there will always be a small percentage that will remain in the third category.
NOTA however is a powerful option for the second category. These politically active and concerned category should go out and at least register a NOTA. This shall ensure that they participate in the democratic process and register their point of view - however much we may dislike their disappointment. Further, it reduces the chances of bogus voting in their names.
But voting NOTA may get the worse candidate chosen
This is the most often given argument against NOTA and nothing can be more laughable an argument. This argument assumes that bereft of those people who do not feel good about all the candidates on offer - the majority was in fact with the worse choice. And if this was true why do we call that candidate the worse choice !?
Then why do so many people oppose NOTA
If you ask me this question, my answer would be - "No idea". Because most people whom I have heard opposing NOTA offer some vague - "NOTA is a waste of your vote" or that "NOTA is like dereliction of your duty as a citizen" or some such phrase without offering a reason or logic to such flat judgements.
I realised that most people (not all however) resist NOTA because their mental arithmetic tells them that more people choosing NOTA may lead to their favourite candidates losing the election. This of course is then a farce to discuss with such biases.
The only valid argument currently is that NOTA votes do not have an electoral value as of now. However, your vote to NOTA is still a message to those who should but do not care for what you feel about the choices you are offered as your leaders.
So. am I suggesting you to vote NOTA??
No, surely not. I neither advocate nor oppose NOTA. When you make up your mind on whom to vote for - keep NOTA as a valid option. Weigh your choices - decide on the best candidate out of the given GOOD choices. However, I am surely suggesting Do NOT choose the better of the bad alternatives. If you feel that the candidates offered are not even of acceptable quality - go out and press the NOTA button. The point is simple NOTA is a valid option for every voter.
One last thing - whatever you do - whomever you choose - even if you choose NOTA, please do go out and vote. Because we must matter.
One of the things that our Finance Minister Arun Jaitley proudly tweets, blogs and speaks about is the fine management of economy his ministry has purportedly done - by broadly keeping it to the declared objective of fiscal prudence. However a simple bird's eye view will puncture many holes in that achievement.
Let's start with meeting the disinvestment target by the Government. One news story caught my eye. One of the Navratna PSUs ONGC's (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) cash reserves have depleted by 98%, down from Rs 9,511 crore in March 2017 to Rs 167 crore in Sept 2018. On the other hand by the end of Financial year 2018 the debt on the company was close to 25000 crores.
What has this to do with fiscal prudence of Jaitley's budgeting skills. Well ONGC is a living example of accounting jugglery of Jaitley's finance ministry to make the Government balance sheet look good and he can also claim meeting disinvestment targets in front of cameras. But here is the catch - this is not disinvestment at all. It is squeezing cash out of the company to bolster Government balance sheet. And ONGC is not alone.
You see - a genuine attempt to disinvest Air-India failed abjectly. Even the great modi government could not get it done. So then the government did not even try to move ahead on other ailing PSUs like the IDBI bank. LIC - a 100% government ownership company was made to invest in IDBI bank - which announced a loss of 13000 crores in that financial year. And then Government made ONGC buy its stake in HPCL for which ONGC - an almost debt free company had to raise huge debt. This is at best cross-disinvestment. One Government company buys shares of another government company from the Government. Now the ownership of HPCL as a result has been transferred to ONGC from the government but wait ONGC is owned by the Government. In short - ONGC was made to pay cash to the Government. This is despite the fact that ONGC made a dividend payment which was also a 1000 odd crores more than the last year. Of Course in all such transactions - the retail investor saw his value get destroyed because of such poor corporate Governance. So ONGC lost about 37% of its market capitalisation in the Modi years.
And by the way - ONGC was supposed to raise its crude oil production meanwhile - however for the last five years as well the decline its crude production continued as was the case before 2014 too. All in all then this constraints ONGC's ability to actively drill for more oil in the immediate future which also thus caps its possible value creation. It has seen a recent improvement in crude production in the last financial year.
And no, this is not all of the jugglery of Jaitleyji did to manage the fiscal deficit on his books. FCI was forced to take loans to cover for food subsidies that remain unpaid in the financial year 2018-19 to the extent of about 60,000 crores. In simple terms what it means is that he shifted a liability that should have appeared on the government books to a PSU book. This of course remains a burden to paid next year.
Not just that - after a lot of push and pulls and resistance from the RBI Jaitleyji was also successful in getting the RBI to trasfer a surplus of Rs 50000 crores denting the cash reserves with the RBI too. All in all the government has been shoring up cash from all ways and means keeping the corporate governance so close to Modiji's heart aside.
Why would all these be needed - because the announcement and implementation of various schemes left right and center needs to be funded. While, after all the tax reforms that Jaitleyji claims to have done, the tax mop-up of the Government fell short by a shocking 1.6 trillion rupees from the budget value in 2018-19. The 2019-20 budget actually expects to collect a figure higher than this missed budgeted figure by a 10 plus percent.
So, in short the government seems to be bleeding cash from PSUs, cross disinvesting to generate money, pushed the RBI to transfer higher surplus and failed to mop up budgeted taxes by a huge margins. What this concludes to is that the harmless looking revision of fiscal deficit from a budgeted 3.3% (which was also higher than committed three years ago) to 3.4% is also jugglery. The actual fiscal deficit is much larger and most probably will figure either in revised numbers or next year's budget. In fact looking at the gap in tax mop-ups the revised figure of GDP growth rate of 7% also looks doubtful. This (mis)management of course will have to be paid by the tax payers and share holders and investors in PSUs and LIC etc.
No wonder then that modi government is pitching this election not on "vikas" but on "Nationalism" and "religious" tone. What is interesting is that Modiji seems to be winning anyways. Enjoy the ride.
