Temporary setback or start of a decline !?

With Jharkhand slipping out of the BJP grip quite convincingly - BJP/modi haters are quite ecstatic. Despite an invincible looking Lok sabha win five states slipping out of the BJP fold in just one year does make them look vulnerable suddenly (they have a government in Haryana/Karnataka, however the mandate was not really for them).

Some say that the "Modi Tsunami" is finally waning away - a substantial share of seats that Modiji campaigned for in state elections before and after the 2019 Lok sabha polls were lost by the BJP. Various memes are viral on the social media that compares the BJP's rule between Dec 2018 and Dec 2019; the states under BJP rule shrinking from 19 to 13, The area it governs shrinking from 71% to 35% of India, The population it rules from approx 69% to 42.5%. An interesting statistic is that in the Lok Sabha BJP represents 51% of the Assembly Constituencies whereas at the Vidhan Sabha level - after jharkhand elections it represents just 32% of the constituencies. 

So what does this mean !?
The question is should we start writing the fall of the modi empire and that BJP's achche din as getting over. Like always the answer is not so simple or straight forward. Historically, supporters of either side would like to believe that their perception is the correct one. Let's dip a little into data to understand the nuances.

Let's look at election data for BJP in the three assembly elections conducted in 2019 after the Loksabha elections

BJP vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

Year -- >	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana	9%	4	33%	47	36%	40
Maharashtra	14%	46	27.8%	122	25.7%	105
Jharkhand	20.2%	18	31.26	37	33.7	25

After the stupendous climb in the vote share in 2014 over the 2009 levels the BJP has either maintained or even bettered that vote share in the 2019 elections. However a minor decline in the total number of seats won by the BJP has resulted into government slipping from their grip sometimes.

The results of these elections however - has elated the congress much. So much so that some supporters have started mocking at the "congress mukt bharat" slogan. A few have even shown the gall to phrase the term "BJP mukt bharat" based on the number of states, area under BJP and similar data. So let's look at what is the situation of Congress

Congress vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

Year -- >	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana	35%	90	20.5%	15	31%	31
Maharashtra	21%	82	18%	42	15.9%	44
Jharkhand	16.2%	14	10.5%	6	13.9%	16

As the above table clearly shows after a total rout of sorts for the Congress in 2014 there does seem to have been a modicum of recovery for the Congress. However, to feel elated about this recovery can mean that the Congress still does not understand the depth and quality of decay in their reputation among the masses. They are currently at half the vote share to that of the BJP and are hardly a competition to the BJP as of now. While they may be partners in the Government in the states but politically they are fast transforming into a lightweight.

What explains the BJP setback then !?
The Question then is what is the reason for the BJP setback then. Here is another table for the same states for the 2nd/3rd largest performer in each state (combined for states with more than one strong player)

Regional Party(ies) vote share and seats won in assembly elections (Src : ECI website)

	2009		2014		2019
State	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats	Vote Share	Seats
Haryana  (INLD+Ind+JJP)	39%	38	37%	24	29.4%	18
Maharashtra (NCP+SS)	32.7%	106	35.25%	164	32.6%	110
Jharkhand (JMM)	15.2%	18	20.4%	19	18.7%	30

What this table tells is common knowledge, but it is cemented by data proof. In most states now there is a strong regional party/combination that challenges the BJP domination. The arrogance of the BJP brought about by the dizzying success achieved first in 2014 and then in the Lok sabha elections of 2019 may have created this speed breaker of sorts. Alienating the AJSU in jharkhand and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra may have costed it dearly. In at least 10 seats for example in Jharkhand the combined vote share of BJP and AJSU was more than the winning candidate. In the recent future the BJP is going to face elections in West Bengal, Bihar and Delhi where there are regional players TMC, RJD and AAP respectively. 

An interesting statistic to point out is that Excluding J&K India has Total 4033 MLAs out of which

BJP - 1315

Congress - 844

Others - 1865

Vacant - 9

This when the BJP is at the peak of its popularity and the Congress at the Nadir. This is why the BJP will need partners in state to maintain its dominance and for that it must contain its arrogance.

While this is the picture of only three states but it is true of many more states including the north east. The elections of hindi speaking belt (MP/Rajasthanan and Chattisgarh) does not show this trend because none of these states have a strong regional party. Congress improved its performance in these states and so have taken over the Government from the BJP - however a I had shown in an analysis in Dec 2018 then - BJP remains very strong in these states too - except chattisgarh where the congress win emphatic and sweeping. In these states historically - a swing of a couple of percentage points in vote share is substantial in terms of seats won. Here is the analysis if you are interested to read it.

For the congress the important point to brood over is that in most of these states at least one strong regional player was once part of the Congress. It has to come up with strategy and a leader that can help them lead the opposition consolidation that seems to be happening in the states on probably survival instinct. The problem with their leadership is that had their not been sharad pawar in maharashtra they would have let the government there also slip away to the bJP because of their dithering and indecision. In Haryana for example they failed to even build a challenge.

Here is what the Loksabha elections of 2019 looked like

Vote share and seats won in Parliamentary Elections 2019

Party	% of votes polled		No of Seats
	Of Total Voters	Of Votes Polled
BJP	25.16%	37.76%	303
INC	13.12%	19.7%	52
Trinamool	2.74%	4.11%	22
BSP	2.44%	3.67%	10
NCP	0.93%	1.4%	5
CPI(M)	1.18%	1.77%	3
CPI	0.39%	0.59%	2

There is little evidence on the ground that this has changed. The congress should not feel happy about being second nationally with about half the vote share than that of the BJP. BJP has no competition at the national level and the only way to defeat them currently is when they themselves commit harakiri. 
The point in short is 

Despite this setbacks in government formation the BJP support is intact and growing. What has happened is that the opposition in states have consolidated to prevent them to form the government. This is not bad for democracy but is not a durable template for the long term.

While the BJP should seize this opportunity by being humble and including more people in its ambit (although it seems to be doing quite the opposite by being all the time combative, arrogant and in denial). They need to earn trust of fence sitters but their recent aggression probably may have the opposite effect. I have said this earlier - wish to repeat it here. "Congress Mukt Bharat" is actually deleterious to their fortunes - because the more congress shrinks the more regional satraps become stronger.

On the other hand the Congress need to realise the rot and slumber that it is in and should find new credible leadership to create alliance and help consolidate the opposition to become its national face. Of course, at this point of time this looks like wishful thinking as the congress dithers, splutters, stumbles and still moves on !!

Regional parties have the onus till then to fight it out on the ground. The problem however is that most regional parties are out of sync with the millennials as they beat on the same traditional - old lines. They need more progressive approach to reach out to the youth of the country.

Hope we see fundamental changes in politics of all these formations in the new year. Wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous new year. 

Statistics, More statistics and Damn Lies - I

Mark Twain once famously said “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Modi Government seems to have taken this quote to its heart literally - specially when they encounter uncomfortable statistics. So the government seems to have turned the quote on its head. 

This one is a series of posts I have compiled to point out to a serious credibility crisis on Government data and its inclination to hide uncomfortable data. This is the first post in the series :

I. Consumption Expenditure Survey

The most recent example of such data treatment was when Business Standard broke the story of a NSSO survey of consumption expenditure. The report is alleged to have concluded that for the first time in four decades the consumption expenditure has reduced by an average 3.7% (year 2017-18).

A reduction in consumption by citizens is worrying on two counts - it further strengthens the theory that the economy is facing a demand deflation leading to slowdown - something that the government has been trying to refute steadfastly and consistently. Second, more worrying is, that economist associate consumption reduction with increased poverty. This, in simple terms, mean that the survey shows that poverty has increased or the first time in the country in almost half a century.

Dig a little deeper into the survey and it cements our concern of what we intuitively knew for quite sometime - rural distress. The average 3.7% decline in consumption masks the fact that the rural consumption actually dropped by a massive 8.8%. The average comes down to 3.7% because there is a minor increase (of 2%) in urban consumption. 

The last such survey conducted in the year 2011-12 showed a overall increase of 15.5% over the previous survey conducted in 2009-10 with rural and urban consumption growing by a robust 11.5% and 13% respectively. The last time this survey showed fall in consumption was in 1972-73 due to Global oil crisis.If we dig deeper into data - Rural areas show a sharp reduction in consumption of food items - which is a strong signal of increased poverty. 

This data becomes all the more damning because it supports the theory that the pet move of Modiji - Demonetisation - threw the rural economy in distress and it is still spluttering unable to recover. Most critics of demo, including me, have been pointing out the demonetisation apart from failing on all its initial objectives have damaged the informal economy most and hence would create huge problems for the rural sector most. This survey strongly supports that analysis. The report is based on data of time which was a few months after demonetisation and coincides with the implementation period of the GST. If our criticism of sloppy implementation of GST is also correct then this decline may have further deepened.

But That is NOT the complete story
You would expect any well meaning Government to take this data up for open minded discussion and look forward to addressing the stress. Right ??

Not in this case. This report was supposed to be released in June 2019. But it was gathering dust in the NSSO for obvious reasons. The apparent reason was that the Government felt that the report has "data issues". Finally this report was leaked by Hindu in a second such case of great investigative journalism.
We need to understand that this report and hence its contents were available to the new Finance Minister and do we see any moves in the Budget to address the distress. The answer is no.

So, what would you expect from the Government as a response to such a report?? 

Ideally the Government must initiate a debate on the veracity, applicability and lessons from such a report. But what does our government do. It denies the problem in the first instance itself. The Government has scrapped the report and cancelled its official release. Simple solution to nutty problems. No Data - No Problems. 

This is not the first time Modi government has suppressed uncomfortable data to manage narrative. Stay tuned for more posts in this series listing the ways in which our officials data is either suspect or is being hidden from public scrutiny to avoid facing uncomfortable data that raises questions on the quality of Governance.